NCAA: nuovi eroi cercasi

[Vitor]

toh, pare che Jennings possa venire proprio in Italia.

[tizio_incognito]

Comunque stavo facendo un pensiero tra me e me... se Jennings avesse successo sarebbe, probabilmente, la morte della NCAA. Quanti atleti giocherebbero ancora nei college quando possono venire in Europa e venire pure pagati?

[Vitor]

ma infatti è un bel problema. davvero non so come potrà andare a finire.

[tizio_incognito]

E' probabile che in caso succeda il patatrac, per non far morire i college Stern metta qualche regola per gli americani tipo "devi aver giocato almeno un anno nei college o comuqnue in america per essere draftato".

[Vitor]

lo "one and done", cioè l'anno obbligatorio al college, esiste già. Non ricordo quale soluzione ci fosse in un altro sport, che se andavi al college eri obbligato a fare almeno 3 anni...

[Tyus da bass]

sono ragazzini di 19 anni che non sono abitutai a giocare in un sistema "serio"

non so quanti potrebbero fare bella figura in Europa

[Vitor]

e intanto arretrano la linea del tiro da 3



http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/column...ndy&id=3481963

[TheSgrash]

arretrano??? mi sembra che allarghino e diventi stile l'attuale europea... no?

[Vitor]

arretrano e di conseguenza allargano
sulle misure non so, dannati yankee retrogradi che non usano il sistema metrico. ma tanto mo' arretrano anche in Europa

[tizio_incognito]

Google for it: sono 6.32m

[Vitor]

quindi è leggermente più distante della linea europea (6.27) prima che decidessero di spostarla a 7 metri.

[Tyus da bass]

OU's Griffin Cited For Public Urination

Aug 25, 2008 7:42 PM EST

Blake Griffin, the Oklahoma sophomore who is expected to be a top-five pick in the 2008 NBA draft, has been ticketed by Norman police for outraging public decency.

Police officer Barry Grippen wrote the citation saying he saw Griffin urinating on bushes in a parking lot Thursday morning.

The report says Griffin told the officer he was waiting for a friend and couldn't leave the area to find a bathroom.

[Vitor]

iniziamo la nuova stagione
Draftexpress segnala i migliori prospetti della nuova stagione.
Iniziamo dalla Big 10

Spoiler:

#1 Manny Harris, 6-4, Sophomore, Shooting Guard, Michigan


AP


Jonathan Givony

While Manny Harris is definitely a fine NBA prospect, we should point out right off the bat that the weakness of the Big 10 can be seen right here at the top of the list.

Although he’s the leading returning scorer in the Big 10 at over 16 points per game, you can’t help but get the feeling when watching him that we’re talking a player that still looks very far from being a finished product at this point—as evidenced by the 38% he shot from the field combined with his extremely high turnover rate. Harris was the best/lone shot-creator on an otherwise extremely weak squad (10-22 overall, 5-13 in the Big 10) and thus garnered an absurdly high 26% of his team’s offensive possessions, good for 22nd in the NCAA in that category. It’s safe to say that if Michigan is going to be any good next season, and Harris will be able to iron out the many wrinkles in his game, that number will have to come down to a more normal rate (20-22% or so).

Harris has fairly average size for the shooting guard position, standing somewhere between 6-4 and 6-5, without a great deal of meat on his bones. His main virtue lies in his outstanding scoring instincts, which are extremely advanced for a player who won’t turn 19 for another few weeks, making him younger than many members of this year’s incoming freshman class. Harris is an extremely tough, confident, aggressive player who gets to the free throw line at a superb rate. He has a good first step, excellent body control in the lane, and a knack for making his way to the rim, even if his ball-handling skills are improvable. He doesn’t finish particularly well once there (due to his average size and strength) but manages to draw 6.2 free throws per-40 minutes pace adjusted, good for 19th in the entire country last year. As he gets older, he should be able to get stronger and craftier and capitalize better on his shot-creating tools, for example his floater, which shows promise.

Harris is a very tough matchup with his right hand, but is far weaker with his left hand, both finishing around the basket and dribbling the ball. His mid-range game still isn’t very developed at this point, partially due to the excessive amount of wasted motion we find in his shooting mechanics. He tends to kick his feet out violently or spread his legs out while releasing his pull-ups, and seems to jump forward quite a bit on his catch and shoot jumper.

He’s able to make shots at a solid rate when he’s open with his feet set, displaying a nice follow through, a slow release and range that extends out to NBA range, but tends to rely on his 3-point shot far too heavily, which combined with his improvable technique led him to shoot just 32% from this range, on a large number of attempts.

His shot-selection and decision making looked very poor at times in his freshman season, but that might be partially due to the quality of teammates that surrounded him. Regardless, Harris was one of the more turnover players in the country last season, indeed ranking 2nd in that category, which is not a great distinction to have by any means.

Defensively, Harris is a bit difficult to evaluate at times, as his team played quite a bit of 1-3-1 zone, a very bizarre style of defense that traps ball-handlers near mid-court and relies a great deal on switching and rotating depending on which matchup is in a player’s part of the zone at any given moment. Harris played at the top of this zone, and got in the passing lanes at a very nice rate, usually showing good effort and solid lateral quickness, but looking a bit questionable at times with his lack of size, strength and fundamentals in others, giving us mostly a mixed bag on this end of the floor.

All in all, there is a lot to like about the raw tools Harris is showing early on in his career, even if he’s obviously very far from being a finished product at this point. It would be nice to see how he’s able to function in the context of a normal team where he isn’t asked to take so many responsibilities offensively before he decides to jump to the NBA, as it’s very hard to project his role until then. Putting up huge scoring numbers in a losing effort on terrible shooting percentages isn’t going to impress that many scouts, which is why it will be important for Harris to go out and develop the rest of his game as well, even if he has to do that on his own.

#2 Evan Turner, 6’6, SG/SF, Sophomore, Ohio State


AP


A player who flew under the radar for most of last season, Evan Turner should definitely be getting more attention at Ohio State this year with Kosta Koufos and Jamar Butler now out of the picture. Turner, a versatile and scrappy two-way wing player, showed a lot of nice flashes last season, including his 17-point and 20-point performances in the semifinals and finals of the NIT Tournament, helping lead Ohio State to the title.

Turner brings a lot of positive things to the table on the offensive end, including good ball-handling skills for a wing, possessing a low, controlled dribble with both hands, and a decent array of advanced moves in his arsenal, including a crossover he uses frequently. He doesn’t have a very explosive first step, but he is quick with the ball in his hands, barely slowing down from his normal speed. This is a great asset to have, but sometimes it’s to his disadvantage, when his body gets ahead of his mind, leading to turnovers. While Turner is skilled with the ball, he has some major issues with turnovers at this point, having the 7th worst turnover-per-possession ratio in our entire database, turning the ball over on 30% of all possessions. One of the biggest things he needs to work on to improve this is doing a better job of protecting the ball in the lane, and always being aware of defenders around him (especially those coming from behind). He also is prone to a lot of rookie mistakes, like leaving his feet before making a pass, moving his feet before putting the ball on the ground, or just trying to force a pass or drive into too small a space. At times he actually shows very good decision-making skills and court vision, and it seems most of the issue here is just playing the game faster than he’s ready for.

Turner’s jump shot is a work in progress, but something that seemed to improve later in the season, where he cleaned up his mechanics some, keeping full extension on all his releases and cutting down on a tendency for his arm to drift to the right. When he has space and gets his feet set, his shot is pretty good, but he struggles when rushed, as his release isn’t the quickest in the world. Pulling up, Turner has nice touch and body control, and can go to floaters and runners consistently, but he often has times transitioning the ball from dribble to shot, going too quick and losing full control of the ball. When he takes the ball to the basket, Turner shows nice craftiness on reverses and can hit some good floaters, but he’s lacking the strength and/or explosiveness to be a consistent finisher around the rim at this point.

Turner shows some flashes of point guard ability with drive-and-dishes and pick-and-rolls, but he’s going to really need to cut down on his high turnover rate if this position is in his future, even part-time. With Jamar Butler out of the picture, he’ll have some more opportunities to show what he can do here.

On the defensive end, Turner is a standout, playing with great intensity, focus, and fundamentals. He reads opposing players well, and has good reflexes to boot, which coupled with his intensity-level makes him very tough on the perimeter. He recovers well when he makes mistakes, rarely is caught out of his stance, and always runs out to contest shots. His biggest weakness is his lateral quickness, which isn’t great, as he can get beat by quicker opponents, but he compensates for this somewhat with his length, intensity, and by having good positioning and awareness. On the weakside, he anticipates very well and has nice hands, which help him get his 1.3 steals per game.

While Turner definitely has a lot of things to work on, he’s shown flashes of good things in almost all areas, and could be on the verge of a breakout season with more touches available, if he put in the proper work this offseason. If he fills in some of the weak areas of his game, it’ll be interesting to see if he can improve on his consistency, as his scoring totals fluctuated wildly from game-to-game, with 15 games with 5 points or under and 15 games with 10 points or more. He’s probably another season or two away from the NBA, but he could become a very versatile option at the wing if he continues to improve.


#3 David Lighty, 6’5, Junior, Shooting Guard/Small Forward, Ohio State


Ohio State Athletics


Rodger Bohn

Lighty followed up a promising freshman campaign with a relatively marginal second season. Although he put up respectable numbers, he did not quite live up to the expectations that many had for him after his strong performance at the U-19 Championships in the summer of ‘07. Regardless, the combination of size, strength, and defensive potential displayed by Lighty is enough to make him one of the top prospects that the fairly weak Big 10 has to offer.

Sporting the same muscular physique that he has in the past, Lighty has the total package physically for a power wing player. He is blessed with legit height, a nice wingspan, and appears to have reacquired the explosiveness that he had as a prep star before he suffered a serious knee injury.

On the offensive end, Lighty does the bulk of his damage slashing to the rim and scoring in transition. Using his exceptionally strong frame and nice first step, he is able to finish around the cup with either hand and shield off bigger, more athletic defenders in the process. When unable to find his way to the rim Lighty has shown nice potential as a passer, showing nice vision with his unselfish style of play.

Over his first two years in college Lighty, who was an accomplished scorer in high school, has struggled mightily in terms of getting in a scoring groove. His jumper (although improving) has lacked consistency, even though he displays nice form and release. David is not overly creative off of the dribble due to his weak ball-handling skills and won’t hit you with a variety of scoring moves either. His left hand needs work and his in-between game looks underdeveloped. The 11.6 points he scored per-40 minutes is one of the weaker rates you’ll find amongst top prospects in any other conference we’ll preview.

The defensive end is where Lighty offers the most intrigue as a prospect. His size and strength allow him to hold his ground against whomever he’s guarding, enabling him to body up opposing guards who might be slightly quicker then him. This strength has also given him the versatility to guard players ranging from point guards to power forwards. The Cleveland native has shown the ability to get his hands on a ton of balls, especially in Ohio State’s three quarter court press, making himself much more of a presence then his numbers reflect on the defensive end.

The Buckeyes will rely upon Lighty to step up on the offensive end in his junior season if they hope to achieve more success than they did last year. He will be counted upon as a team leader and catalyst, given the abundance of youth and inexperience that OSU will have this season. David is still not a sure fire NBA draftee at the moment by any means, although a strong junior season could easily solidify his status as an NBA prospect.

#4 Raymar Morgan, 6’7”, Junior, Small Forward, Michigan State


Icon SMI


Joey Whelan

Raymar Morgan made tremendous strides during his sophomore campaign with the Spartans, improving significantly in nearly every statistical category without seeing an increase in playing time. The athletic small forward became even more of a fixture in Tom Izzo’s offense than he was as a freshman, leading the team in scoring while seeing his shooting percentage jump from 48% to 55% even when taking more shots per game. With the departure of Drew Neitzel, Morgan will have to shoulder even more of a load for Michigan State and has the potential to have an All-Big Ten caliber season. He was outstanding in the first half of the season last year and then saw his numbers drop off dramatically in the second half (particularly in the NCAA tournament), and will need to be consistent all year long for the Spartans to have the type of season many are expecting.

At 6’7”, Morgan has average size for the small forward position, but compensates for this with his length and solid athleticism. He has good open floor speed and quickness, but his weak ball handling skills slow him down considerably and prevent him from being more of an offensive threat. His wiry 225 pound frame is much stronger than it looks and this allows Morgan to finish with contact around the basket at a tremendous rate and to post up smaller players.

As was the case last season, one of the biggest areas that Morgan needs to continue working on is his range. He has shown continual improvement in his ability to connect from mid-range as a catch and shoot player. His release point is inconsistent, but quick enough that he can get his shot off against most defenders. Morgan gets into trouble when he tries to create for himself off the dribble; usually he winds up off balanced, firing a line drive at the basket. He still isn’t much of a threat from beyond the perimeter, attempting just 33 shots from beyond the arc last season and connecting on 10 of them.

Morgan’s ability to score effectively in the post makes him a versatile scorer. His strength and athleticism allow him to back down smaller opponents on the block. While he doesn’t have any developed post moves, he shows pretty good instincts when playing with his back to the basket. Morgan does tend to panic and make poor decisions when he is doubled down low though.

Rebounding and versatility continue to be the appealing aspects of Morgan’s defensive game. Last season he pulled down over 6 boards per game and that was without ever really doing an effective job of boxing out opponents. If he can add proper technique to his length and aggressiveness, there is no reason to think that Morgan can’t be among the Big Ten’s top rebounders. He also does well covering various types of players, whether it be bodying up power forwards or guarding more perimeter based players on the wing. He does struggle from time to time with his lateral quickness going up against quicker matchups though.

Morgan has already done himself plenty of good in regards to making an impression on NBA scouts, this season he can make the leap from promising underclassmen to legitimate pro prospect. If he can become a more consistent shooter from 18 feet and improve his ball-handling skills, Morgan will show that he’s fully made the transition from power forward to small forward.

#5 Robbie Hummel, 6’8, Sophomore, SF/PF, Purdue


AP


Kyle Nelson

As a freshman, Purdue forward Robbie Hummel helped the rebuilding Boilermakers finish the regular season with a 23-7 record and win an NCAA tournament game. He finished his freshman campaign as the Big 10’s top marksman, shooting a blistering 44.7% from beyond the arc on 2.8 attempts per game on his way to 11.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. After his freshman season, Robbie Hummel established himself as a great perimeter shooter with an extremely aggressive mindset, a terrific basketball IQ and big holes in his game on both sides of the floor.

At 6’8 and capable of playing on the perimeter as well as in the post, Hummel is the ultimate college mismatch. He is not a bad athlete by any measure at the college level, though compared to most NBA small forwards, he is well below par. Weighing in at just 208 pounds last season, it is essential that Hummel add muscle to his frame and get stronger, especially if he wants to be more effective around the basket and in the post.

As of now, though, the post does not factor much into Hummel’s offense. He is first and foremost a scorer away from the basket. His spot-up perimeter jumpshot is relatively consistent, but despite his high percentages, seems to be a work in progress. He possesses a quick release, but begins his shooting motion too far away from his body and releases his shot off-balance. That said, he can and will take his shot from anywhere within his range, which extends to beyond the NBA three-point line.

Hummel also showed the ability to attack the basket off of the dribble. Though he doesn’t have a very good first step, he is a crafty and competent enough dribbler by a lot of the collegiate post-defenders that have the misfortune of guarding him 20-feet from the basket, even if he clearly favors his right hand. Off of the dribble, he also shows nice court vision and creativity, passing the ball extremely well. Out of all players in our database, Hummel ranked in the top 25 in assist to turnover ratio, which is impressive considering that he’s a forward and most of the players alongside him there were point guards.

If he’s to make it, Hummel’s future in the NBA will obviously be on the perimeter, and thus he would be best served working on polishing up his skill-set over the next 2-3 years in college. His mid-range pull-up jumper is fairly weak right now, and he avoids going to his left hand any time he puts the ball on the floor.

Unfortunately, many of his physical flaws follow him to the defensive end. He shows poor lateral quickness on the perimeter and is often beaten by his man. In the post, his lack of strength hurts him both in one-on-one situations as well as on the defensive glass where he averaged 3.5 defensive rebounds per game. Basically, he must become a better defender both inside and out if he wants to have a shot at the next level.

Despite his flaws, he was still one of the most versatile and skilled freshman forwards in the NCAA. Without ideal NBA athleticism, however, he is going to have to show scouts that he has grown as a basketball player on both sides of the floor in this coming season if he wants to keep his name firmly in future draft consideration. It will likely be his smarts, aggressiveness and winning mentality that endears him to NBA types, rather than his natural physical tools.

[Vitor]

ancora Big 10

Spoiler:

#6 JaJuan Johnson, 6-10, Sophomore, PF/C, Purdue

5.4 points in 16.6 minutes per game usually doesn't scream NBA prospect to most people, but when you're a 6-10 super long and athletic big man with some budding skills, the predictions tend to be a bit more optimistic.

JaJuan Johnson played a fairly small role for Purdue as a freshman, garnering just under 8% of his team’s possessions. He did not do a great deal to show that he deserved a whole lot more with the 42% he shot from the field, but digging a bit deeper definitely preaches patience considering the basic tools he brings to the table.

Johnson is a very quick player both vertically and horizontally, looking especially impressive getting up and finishing around the basket. He has nice hands and the length and explosiveness to finish pretty much everything underneath the hoop if strength isn’t too much of a concern, and he draws fouls at a high rate to boot, showing decent touch from the free throw line in the process.

Most of his offense at the moment consists of running the floor in transition, grabbing offensive rebounds, making cuts to the rim, and playing pick and roll with his guards. At times he’ll throw in a little jump-hook or turnaround jumper, but nothing to get too excited about just yet. He has no left hand, extremely limited footwork inside the paint, and is about 20-25 pounds away from being capable of holding his spot on the block, which renders him fairly useless with his back to the basket.

From mid-range, Johnson will knock down a jump-shot from time to time (he even hit a 3-pointer in the NCAA tournament), but his footwork looks sloppy and he doesn’t show the polish to be very consistent at this point. His decision making skills just aren’t there yet, not a shock considering how early in the maturation process he appears to be both physically and experience wise, so we’re almost certainly looking at a 3-4 year player despite his extremely high upside.

Defensively, Johnson has great tools thanks to his length, size and athleticism, but he has no idea how to use them right now, getting backed down with ease in the post, and being abused from the outside as well due to his poor fundamentals and awareness. Johnson is too upright in his stance and thus struggles to move laterally on the perimeter, which usually makes him look more like he’s chasing his defender than he is containing him. He wasn’t much of a rebounder to compensate, grabbing just 7.5 boards per-40 minutes. Adding strength and doing a better job boxing out will probably help him in this area.

All in all, Johnson is an intriguing prospect who needs plenty of time and hard work before he can be considered anything more than a long-term project. He showed enough raw tools in his freshman year to be worthy of keeping an eye on, though.

#7 E'`twaun Moore, 6'3, PG/SG, Sophomore, Purdue

Joseph Treutlein

E`Twaun Moore, a lanky 6’3 combo guard, had quite the freshman season for the Boilermakers, leading them in points per game while finishing second in both rebounds and assists as well. He also played his best ball of the season in conference play, with his scoring never dipping below 9 points in any game, while he also got in the 20’s a handful of times.

On the offensive end, Moore’s game starts with his jump shot, which is dangerous up to right outside NCAA range. Moore shot a blistering 43% on the year from beyond the arc, shooting off screens, spotting up, and off the dribble frequently. He has a good, consistent shooting motion with his upper body, boasting a high and quick release, but he does run into some problems on occasion. Mainly, he has a tendency to not always get his legs into his shot, sometimes barely even bending his knees, making his shot rely heavily on his upper body, which leads to inconsistency and some really bad misses. These instances happen most when he’s rushed with a hand in his face, and is definitely something he should work on.

Strength in general is a bit of a problem area for Moore, as he definitely hasn’t filled in his frame yet, though he seems to have more room to do so. He shies from contact at the basket and doesn't go all the way intro traffic much in general, often relying on an array of right-handed floaters, runners, and pull-up jumpers in the lane or from mid-range. He converts on these with decent success, but he does seem to force quite a few of them, and his lack of ability to finish around the rim hurts him. He doesn’t have the greatest vertical explosiveness, which also doesn’t help.

Athleticism in general is not Moore’s greatest asset, as while he’s not a bad athlete, he lacks a certain amount of fluidity and explosiveness, and his first step with the ball is underwhelming. His dribble is controlled but not very advanced, showing little in terms of advanced moves or quick change of direction ability. The right-handed shooter surprisingly is stronger with his left off the dribble, going that direction on 75% of all plays according to Synergy Sports Technology. To illustrate his woes going to the basket, Moore only gets 0.85 points per possession going left to the basket, and an even worse 0.65 PPP going right. Despite shouldering the biggest offensive load of any player on the team, Moore got to the free throw line at the worst rate of any Purdue player on a per-minute basis.

An area Moore does do very good in is transition, where he plays very smart, getting to open space on the floor on the wings when he has the ball or doesn’t, leading to a lot of open three-point shots in rhythm. He also does a better job finishing in traffic here, not having to rely on his first step and explosiveness as much.

Moore shares ball-handling duties in Purdue’s offense, and he racks up a decent 2.6 assists per game, mostly running pick-and-rolls, something he’s really exceptional at. His reads are outstanding and he hits his teammates popping out or going to the basket, on a variety of different cuts, while also knowing when he should pull up for the shot himself. He gets a decent amount of assists through ball movement and in transition as well, but doesn’t really have the handles at the moment to be a great drive-and-dish distributor or primary ball-handler.

Defensively, Moore plays with good focus and intensity, always fighting hard on and off the ball, showing a pretty good stance. At a lanky 6’3, Moore often has a higher center of gravity than the point guards he defends, and he often is behind in lateral quickness as well. Despite this, he does a good job of staying in front of his man, even if it looks slightly awkward at times, as he has good reflexes and positioning. He uses his length well on this end of the floor as well, contesting shots on drives and jump shots.

Moore had a very strong freshman season and only got better as the year went on, so he could be primed for a breakout sophomore season. Improving his slashing ability and focusing on always keeping his legs in his jumper should be among his priorities, while adding some muscle wouldn’t hurt as well. In terms of NBA potential, Moore would appear to be a few years away, and because he’s not an overwhelming athlete, he’s going to really need to hone all of his skills to improve his chances at making it.

#8 Kalin Lucas, 6’0’, Sophomore, Point Guard, Michigan State

Joey Whelan

A few years ago, a freshman season like Kalin Lucas’s would have drawn a fair amount of attention from the basketball community; last season that wasn’t the case though. With blue chip prospects now forced to spend at least a year in the college ranks, Lucas’s solid first year with the Spartans was lost amongst so many other impressive freshman campaigns. Either way, Head Coach Tom Izzo has to be feeling pretty good about returning a point guard who averaged 10.3 points and nearly 4 assists per game in 25 minutes per game.

At 6’0’ (and that might be generous), Lucas is severely undersized for the NBA; a lack of strong leaping ability doesn’t help his cause either. What he does possess is excellent quickness as well as a knack for changing speeds very effectively. Lucas certainly will need to improve on his point guard skill set in order to have a legitimate shot at reaching the next level, as he often looks to shoot first and pass second, but you can’t teach the terrific instincts and aggressiveness he shows on the floor, and there is very little doubt that Lucas will continue to make strides as he matures in age.

The majority of Lucas’s shots come when he looks to spot up on the perimeter. He has a quick release and solid form; he does have a tendency to short arm his shots when he is rushed by defenders though. Lucas certainly has range on his shot, but wasn’t a tremendous threat from the perimeter, attempting less than two 3-pointers per game and connecting on 36.4% of them. When given a moment to set his feet, Lucas can be very effective. When he shoots off the dribble he becomes a much streakier shooter, though. Though he has good ball handling skills and a great first step, Lucas is often very off balance when shooting off the dribble. Despite this less than textbook technique, he still connects on a respectable number of these shots.

Lucas is at his most dangerous in the transition game where he gets to use his speed and aggressiveness to his advantage. He is very tough to stay in front of when he has a full head of steam going, and doesn’t back down from bigger defenders. He shows great body control around the rim and is capable of hitting some pretty acrobatic shots, but this is a result of his lack of size. Lucas tended to force the issue often when driving the lane, making life easy for bigger defenders who would be waiting for him around the basket. This is certainly a sign of inexperience and will be something to keep an eye on as Lucas will need to drive and dish more often as a sophomore. He has good court vision and doesn’t turn the ball over at too high a rate, though, which leaves plenty of room for optimism regarding his playmaking skills, which already show a lot of promise.

Defensively, there is work to be done for Lucas. Certainly he is at a disadvantage since most of the opponents he will be guarding will have several inches on him. He shows quickness on the offense end, but his lateral quickness doesn’t appear to be all that great and he bites on a fair number of dribble moves. Getting stronger in his upper body would help him a lot here as well; often bigger guards are able to bump him out of position to free themselves up for good looks at the basket.

Last season Lucas was the young, promising freshman who showed plenty of potential. His inconsistency (18 points vs. Wisconsin, 19 points vs. Pittsburgh, 4 points vs. Ohio State), while a sign of youth, needs to improve this season, especially now with the departure of fellow backcourt partner Drew Neitzel. Lucas also needs to develop his offensive game more and rely less on his natural speed. Adding a couple of dribble-drive moves would make him much more of a threat with the ball.

Lucas is at least a couple of years away before he should even begin considering the NBA, but there is promise when you look at his all-around combination of skills, athleticism and intangibles. He will always be labeled as being a bit too small initially, but improving his perimeter shooting and distributing the ball at a more consistent rate should be enough to intrigue at least a handful of scouts.

#9 Kevin Coble, 6’8, Junior, SF, Northwestern

Kyle Nelson

Northwestern’s Kevin Coble is one of more unknown prospects in high-major basketball; he also happens to be one of its most productive players. Last season he made the admirable decision to skip the first two months of his team’s season in order to be with his mother as she fought breast cancer in Phoenix, Arizona, which undoubtedly affected his production when considering his sophomore season as a whole.

Capable of playing multiple positions at the collegiate level, the 6’8, 200 pound Northwestern junior averaged 15.9 ppg (48.1% FG, 38.9% 3FG, 81.3% FT), 5.4 rpg, and 1.8 apg last season. Though his NBA outlook is not extremely bright, Coble has the chance to emerge as one of the best players in a very weak Big 10 as well as one of the better shooters in the country. 34 and 37 point games against Michigan and Indiana (shooting a combined 26 of 34 from the field) gave us a glimpse of just how productive Coble can be when he catches fire on any given night.

Standing 6’8, but possessing a very slight frame, Coble projects as a shooting specialist at the next level. The real problem, however, is that he lacks NBA-caliber quickness and athleticism, which will likely always limit his long-term upside ultimately. Still, there have been plenty of players to make the NBA after finding their unique niche, which is exactly what Coble must now focus on.

Offensively, Coble does a majority of his damage shooting spot up jumpshots, which, according to Synergy Sports Technologies account for 41.5% of his offense. Despite the good reputation that comes along with a 38.9% perimeter shooting percentage, Coble’s shooting mechanics are far from perfect. He has an unorthodox looking jumpshot, bringing the ball up from his chest and releasing his shot far away from his body, deliberately but fairly quickly; he lands with his legs far apart and does not get nearly as much elevation as a player of his size should. Regardless, when given a second to set his feet and take aim, Coble is absolutely outstanding on the catch and shoot, which makes him quite a threat on the perimeter considering his excellent size at 6-8.

Arguably Coble’s largest improvement last year was his expanded offensive repertoire. While he still attempted over four perimeter jumpshots per game, he showed an expanded mid-range game, using fakes and pull-up moves to get his shot off. He does not have a good first step, but he did improve his ball handling to the point where he was able to somewhat overcome his athletic deficiencies. Similarly, while he lacks the bulk to take much contact around the basket, he did a slightly better job of slashing to the hoop, though this is an aspect to his game that displays limited potential due to his poor physical tools. His post game is similarly developing. He’ll likely never be strong enough to bang in the post in the physical Big 10, let alone the NBA, but Coble was able to score in the post last year thanks to some decent moves, including an improved turnaround jumpshot.

Arguably his biggest asset besides his shooting, however, is his basketball IQ. Coble is a smart player who passes well in the perimeter as well as from out o the post. He moves extremely intelligently, knowing how to get open off of screens (10.3% of his offense) and by cutting (22.6% of his offense). Sometimes he does not know his limitations, particularly attempting shots off the dribble, but for the most part he is a very smart basketball player.

Defensively, he uses his length well to harass shooters on the wing and to get into passing zones, but outside of that, his athletic limitations, particularly his poor lateral quickness, will never allow him to be a good defender: even at the collegiate level. Considering the quickness and athleticism of NBA guards and wings, Coble will be an incredible defensive liability should he make it to the next level.

There has been talk of shooting specialists like Kyle Korver, Jason Kapono, and Steve Novak when discussing Coble’s future (although he’s not quite at that level yet), and while he will always get his fair share of looks considering his perimeter prowess and productivity in the Big 10, the odds will be very much stacked against him. This season, he must improve his defense and continue to put on nightly scoring exhibitions if he wants a look in the future. It is very safe to say that Coble will be a four-year college player, but at this point, it is essential that he maintain relevance in the eyes of NBA scouts by producing heavily.

#10 Demetri McCamey, 6’3, Point Guard, Sophomore, Illinois

Rodger Bohn

Demetri McCamey looks to build off of a freshman season that featured small glimpses of excellence sprinkled with heavy doses of inconsistency. This was shown by his averages of a sizzling 21.25 points, 5.25 rebounds, and 5 assists per game in contests against Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Minnesota late in the year, to go along with long stretches of unproductive games, a dismal 36% shooting percentage from the field, and many more losses than Illinois fans are accustomed to.

McCamey is a physically sturdy guard, weighing around 210 pounds. He uses his big frame to its advantage on both ends of the court with his physical style of play. For a point guard, he has nice size at 6’3, but surely needs to slim down a bit if he hopes to keep up with smaller, quicker guards at the next level. Athletically he can’t be described as anything more than just average, particularly in terms of explosiveness.

The Illinois native’s scoring game is primarily centered around his three point shot. Possessing deep range and nice form, it is no surprise that half of McCamey’s made field goals came from the land of three. His willingness to shoot the ball from deep often hindered him at times though, settling for bad jumpers in less than ideal situations, as evidenced by the 36% he shot from the field.

When not shooting the ball from outside the three point line, the remainder of Demetri’s scoring usually comes via floaters in the lane and buckets in transition. While he possesses a below average first step, he is able to pick it up when the tempo of the game increases and shows off very nice end to end speed. McCamey finished at the rim with contact much better on the fast break then he did in half court sets, from the games we observed, but he only managed to get to the free throw line 1.7 times in 27 minutes per game.

Scoring aside, McCamey showed off nice vision for a player who split the point guard duties and should enhance his assist numbers this season with increased time as a playmaker.

The main problem that centers around McCamey’s offensive game is his lack of athleticism and problems with shot selection. He struggles very much to blow by defenders in slower tempo games, often looking visibly frustrated and opting to pull a deep jumper. This is why his shooting percentage is so inconsistent from game to game. The sophomore is a very confident player who thinks that every shot he takes is going in, which definitely hurt him at times last year.

Demetri has shown promise as a defender, even though he possesses average lateral quickness. He seems to understand how to defend by using his strength, allowing him to body up players and give them fits. The size that he owns has also enabled him to guard players at both the point and shooting guard positions.

Like most draft prospects in the Big 10, McCamey is not a sure thing by any stretch as far as the NBA is concerned. There are numerous flaws in his game and he must continue to improve upon his conditioning if he hopes to surely make it to the next level. The promise that he showed last season as a freshman may have put him on the broad radar of NBA scouts, and now he must use his second season in Champaign to back up the small glimpses of intrigue he showed as a freshman.

[Vitor]

Big 12 part 1

Spoiler:

#1 Blake Griffin, 6-10, Sophomore, Power Forward, Oklahoma


Oklahoma Athletics


Jonathan Givony

Blake Griffin definitely exceeded expectations in his initial college season, going from borderline McDonald’s All-American to one of the top freshmen in the NCAA in a very short span, reaching the point that it was a bit of a surprise that he even decided to return for his sophomore campaign. Very few could have faulted him if he did actually, as it’s widely accepted that he would have been a top-10 pick (possibly even top-5) had he decided to come out. Considering the repeated knee problems that he suffered from as a freshman, the jury is still out on whether or not he made the right call as far as his long-term future is concerned.

The fact of the matter is that Griffin is back, though, and college basketball is definitely better because of that decision. With his return come a great deal of expectations, and we heard all summer about the rigid training regimen Griffin is putting himself through to prepare for what’s ahead of him. Being cited for public urination this past week was likely not a part of those plans.

The upside of returning to school? Besides gaining experience, improving his overall skill-level and entering the NBA far more ready to contribute from day one-- Griffin has as good a chance as anyone right now to be considered for the #1 overall pick in the 2009 draft. His combination of strength, size, fluidity and skills put him in a class of his own in the NCAA, and he still has a great deal of room left to improve, which makes him all the more an impressive prospect.

Scouts will be keeping tabs on how much his overall skill-level improves from his freshman to sophomore campaign, particularly his ability to face the basket and do the things that modern-day NBA power forwards are expected to do, especially in regards to his mid-range jumper. Improving his free throw shooting (just 59% as a freshman) wouldn’t hurt either. Defensively, Griffin doesn’t make anywhere near enough use of his excellent physical tools, as he doesn’t always appear to be as intense on this end as he is offensively. These are all things that could use work.

Most importantly for Griffin will be to win and take his team as far as possible in the NCAA tournament. The Big 12 is wide open this year, and Oklahoma should be right in the mix at the top of the table. The Sooners will need Griffin to shoulder quite a heavy load, but he should be ready for that burden.

#2Damion James, 6’7, SF/PF, Junior, Texas


AP


After playing in the shadows of Kevin Durant and D.J. Augustin as a freshman, Damion James stepped into the spotlight a little bit as a Junior, upping his stats across the board, improving on many of his weaknesses, and playing a large part in leading Texas to the Elite Eight. With Durant and Augustin now both in the NBA, more will be expected of the tenacious James, and scouts will be watching to see if he continues to grow as a player.

James contributed in many ways to the Longhorns as a sophomore, notably from behind the three-point arc, where he made significant strides, going from shooting 9% as a freshman to 41% as a sophomore, albeit on just 92 attempts. James has a high release and consistent form, but he doesn’t have the quickest release and his effectiveness falls off significantly on the move. It will be important for James to maintain his strong shooting efficiency from behind the arc to prove last season wasn’t just a fluke.

While James improved from three last season, he unfortunately did not improve from the free-throw line, where he shot a paltry 57%. This, along with his inability to create consistently in one-on-one situations, contributed heavily to his well below-average 52% TS%, which ranks him fourth from last for all players currently projected in our 2009 mock. James’ struggles in isolations stem from his underdeveloped ball-handling skills. He can occasionally create a jumper off one dribble going either direction, but struggles attacking the basket, not having a dribble very low to the ground and struggling to change direction. The ball also slows him down significantly.

While James isn’t great creating with the ball in his hands, he does a great job creating opportunities without it, reading the lanes, making excellent cuts, catching and adjusting at the rim, and getting out in transition by utilizing his excellent motor, as he’s always hustling on either side of the floor. This shows up most on the boards, where despite being a 6’7 combo-forward, he ranked 9th in our entire database in rebounds per pace adjusted 40 minutes (at 13.3 per game), while ranking 5th in defensive rebounds by the same metric.

On the defensive end, James has a ton of potential, but is still very rough around the edges, despite making notable strides. He has great physical tools with his length, strength, and great athleticism, all things he makes great use in transition, breaking up plays from the weakside, and by rushing out to contest perimeter shots. He isn’t as effective in man defense, though, as he’s inconsistent with his fundamentals on the perimeter and doesn’t have the best reaction time, often biting for pump fakes and jab steps or just getting frozen on crossovers or other moves. Laterally, his quickness is good, though, as he’s capable of sticking with point guards at times on drives to the basket. A versatile player, James is also serviceable defending the post, playing bigger than his size by blanketing his man, playing smart positional defense, and really working his butt off.

Coming back as a junior, scouts will be looking for James to continue to shoot well from three, and see some of that success translate to the line. Improving his ball-handling and continuing to make strides as a perimeter defender are also major priorities. If he can do these things, he projects very nicely as a role-playing small forward in the NBA, and could be a first round pick as early as this year.

#3James Anderson, 6-6, Sophomore, SG/SF, Oklahoma State


Icon SMI


Jonathan Givony

After a solid, but unspectacular freshman season, James Anderson still probably isn’t a name that easily rolls off the tongue of most college basketball enthusiasts, but it’s pretty safe to say that he’s going to become much more familiar over the next year or two.

With a new coach in place in Travis Ford, and a full season underneath his belt, Anderson seems to have the raw talent and physical attributes to develop into a very solid option for Oklahoma State in his sophomore season. He’s got good size for the wing, an excellent frame, a nice wingspan, and terrific athleticism to complete a pretty intriguing initial picture. Anderson got most of his points as a freshman playing off the ball, running the floor in transition and crashing the offensive glass, but he can also really shoot the ball, knocking down 38% of his 5.4 attempts per game from beyond the arc.

In fact, over 50% of Anderson’s field goal attempts came from beyond the arc, which helps begin to explain one of his biggest weaknesses at the moment—his poor ball-handling skills. Anderson drives almost exclusively left when he puts the ball on the floor, and doesn’t seem to have the advanced dribbling skills needed to change directions or pull-up off the dribble if the defense rotates over to stop him. He often looks out of control by the time he gets to the rim (although he’s often athletic enough to get away with it) and is not really capable of creating his own shot on the fly from the perimeter the way most NBA wing players are expected to.

Anderson looks to have some significant offensive talent looking purely at his instincts and feel for putting the ball in the net, but he has a great deal of room to improve on his overall polish, not to mention his passing and rebounding ability. Considering how young he is, that doesn’t come as a huge shock.

Defensively, Anderson didn’t seem to be playing like a freshman in the later games of the season we watched of his. After starting off the season looking inconsistent in his effort and not always all that aware of what’s going on around him, he seemed to improve later in the Big 12 slate. He seemed to show more of a commitment on this end of the floor, getting low into a fundamental stance, while being aided greatly by his excellent physical tools. His frame could still use some work as we saw at times by the way he got caught trying to fight through screens, which seemed to put his entre team’s defense at a disadvantage. He’s not immune to suffering momentary lapses of judgment on this end of the floor, so we’ll have to see what kind of progress he continues to make here.

In short, there is a lot to work with, and a lot for Anderson to work on, so how quickly he makes it to the NBA will probably largely depend on how productive he becomes both individually and collectively with his teammates at Oklahoma State.

#4 Cole Aldrich, 6-11, Sophomore, Center, Kansas


Kansas Athletics


Joey Whelan

The Kansas Jayhawks will likely be hard pressed to repeat as national champions this season, but any success they see in the Big 12 this year will have to come in large part from their rising frontcourt presence Cole Aldrich. The former McDonald’s All-American saw limited action due to a stacked roster, but his numbers adjusted for forty minutes were fantastic, placing him second amongst freshman in rebounds and third in blocks.

Physically, there is a lot to like about Aldrich. At 6’11” and 250 pounds he has a sturdy enough frame to handle the rigors of playing in the paint, and his size is ideal for a modern day NBA center. To add intrigue to the picture, he also owns an excellent wingspan. He certainly needs to get stronger if he wants to be a player who primarily plays with his back to the basket, but he should be able to handle about as much weight as he needs to as his body naturally fills out in time. He shows pretty good agility for a player of his size as well, running the floor well and being capable of getting to where he needs to on the floor. Aldrich doesn’t show incredible leaping ability, which could hinder him against more athletic big men, but he is a pretty solid athlete considering his size.
At this point, Aldrich primarily gets his touches within eight feet of the basket. He does an excellent job of getting position on defenders with his body, but lacks the footwork and polish at this point to capitalize on many of his post touches. He can finish around the rim if given space to operate, but tends to struggle trying to create anything advanced for himself. Aldrich primarily goes to one of two moves: a baby hook shot or a turn-around jumper. Both of these look promising thanks to his soft touch, but he has a tendency to rush these moves. Often he will turn and shoot before he is square to the hoop, hindering his shooting percentage (which was still a respectable 51.8%).

Aldrich hasn’t yet developed any sort of power move to the basket. While his finesse game is solid, he runs into problems against bigger post players who force him to fade away on his jump shot. Becoming stronger and more aggressive going to the rim would make Aldrich immensely more valuable on the offensive end of the floor, and just getting more repetitions would probably help him avoid take some of the bad shots he tends to settle for at times. Right now, he relies too heavily on his physical tools to get the job done against smaller players. In the NBA, that obviously won’t fly.

The rest of Aldrich’s game is underdeveloped and based more on hustle than actual ability. He gets a lot of easy buckets thanks to teammates driving and drawing additional defenders away from the hoop. The offensive glass is also a big source of points for Aldrich, and he seems to give tremendous effort on both ends of the floor on the boards, aided obviously by his excellent size and length. Often times during his freshman campaign it was common place to see Aldrich coming away with several rebounds on one series in addition to a put back, thanks to his hustle.

He moves well off the ball, often screening for teammates away from the paint, and will on rare occasion step out for a mid range jumper. While he shows decent touch, his shooting mechanics are not very attractive. When he is forced to catch and shoot he short arms the ball; but when he has time to set up, his shot becomes long and over exaggerated. He moves well up and down the floor in transition, but has yet to show us any real ability to put the ball on the floor in any scenario.

Defensively, there is a lot to like about Aldrich. He shows a great knack for timing when contesting shots; he averaged nearly a block per game despite getting just eight minutes of playing time. Aldrich knows how to body up against opponents to keep them from easily getting to the rim, but could still stand to get stronger in his upper body to be even more effective. Above all, Aldrich is a solid defender who knows how to make the most of his abilities. He hedges adequately on screens and is a solid help defender. Foul trouble may be an issue for him due to his average lateral quickness and occasional over-exuberance, but in time he should be able to work out the kinks and become very adequate on this end of the floor.

It’s a pretty safe bet to say that the NBA will be in the cards for Aldrich eventually, the only question is how soon that will come. He a big, long and relatively athletic big man who can rebound the ball effectively and be a presence inside as a shot-blocker. While not the smartest player in the world at this point, Aldrich should be able to get the playing time he needs now to learn how to do more than just overpower opponents with his physical tools.

#5 Craig Brackins, 6’10, Power Forward, Sophomore, Iowa State


Icon SMI


Rodger Bohn

Rebuilding Iowa State’s chances of success will rest largely on the shoulders of sophomore Craig Brackins, who looks to build off of a promising freshman season. The well traveled forward made stops at three different states during his prep days (Lancaster HS in California, Boys to Men Academy in Illinois, and Brewster Academy in New Hampshire) before finding his eventual home at Iowa State.

Standing 6’10 and weighing 230 pounds, Craig has an ideal body for a power forward prospect. Although not incredibly strong at the moment, he has a frame that has the potential to add plenty of weight over the next few years. Running the floor is not an issue for Brackins and he has showed a much improved motor during his first season in college then he did at the high school ranks. He is a good leaper who can play above the rim, although it is not so evident with his tendency to fall in love with the jumpshot.

Brackins’ offensive skill set is definitely the selling point of what he offers as a prospect. He is a very skilled big man capable of playing both inside and out. Although only a sophomore, he has already displayed a solid understanding of how to play the pick and roll game and has established himself as a deadly pick and pop threat out to the three point line (as seen by his 33 point performance against Baylor that included 8 three pointers). Brackins is also capable of putting the ball on the floor a couple of times and taking slower big men off of the dribble when given the opportunity from the perimeter.

In the low post, the California native has proven to be comfortable going towards either shoulder and finishing with ease. He lacks a vast array of power moves, usually opting to go for a number of turnaround jumpers and jump hooks with either hand, and often lacking the strength and toughness to finish through contact, which leads him to take low-percentage shots. Brackins doesn’t do an outstanding job of finding the open man when double teamed, and often settles for jumpers far more than one would like to see out of a player his size. He shot a paltry 43% from the field and 28% from beyond the arc. Regardless, it is the offensive package that Brackins offers that makes him one of the more intriguing long-term prospects the Big 12 has to offer.

Defensively, there is a great deal of room for improvement for Brackins that will need to be made before he can legitimately consider himself an NBA prospect. He is a poor rebounder (pulling down a very pedestrian 7.3 rebounds per 40 minutes), struggles defending the pick and roll, and often generally looks disinterested on this end of the floor. Guarding power forwards who face the basket is a major area of emphasis for Brackins, who was often faced with isolation situations last season due to his below average foot speed. As far as shot blocking is concerned, one would hope that a player with his size, length, and athleticism would be able to average more than one block per game. On the bright side, Brackins has shown promise as a positional defender in the low post at times, holding his ground against more traditional back to the basket players.

The graduation of seniors Rahshon Clark and Jiri Hubalek, along with the transfer of Wesley Johnson, will make Brackins the focal point of the Cyclone offense. Given his ability to score in a number of ways and his team’s lack of scoring punch, the potential is definitely there for Craig to put up monster numbers in the Big 12 this season. How he responds to the added responsibility of being the Cyclones’ go to guy will ultimately deem how quickly Brackins will be able to begin entertaining the possibility of jumping to the NBA, as well as the amount of strength he managed to add to his lanky frame over the offseason. Turning 21 years old before the 08-09 season kicks off, he is at least a year older than most players in his class.

[Vitor]

Big 12 part 2

Spoiler:

#6 Kevin Rogers, 6-9, Junior, Power Forward, Baylor

Jonathan Givony


Icon SMI


After an excellent sophomore season that put him firmly on the NBA draft radar screen, Kevin Rogers may have taken a step sideways in his junior season, not really capitalizing on the added attention that came his way. Baylor as a team was much better than the previous year, but Rogers’ numbers appeared to stagnate a bit in a slightly smaller role—as his scoring rate fell off slightly and his field goal percentage dropped, but his rebounding improved and he managed to cut down on his fouls and turnovers significantly. All in all, he didn’t have a bad season, but you just couldn’t help feeling that he could have offered a bit more. Luckily for him, as well as Baylor, he is back for his senior year and will be scrutinized very heavily as one of the top big men prospects the Big 12 has to offer.

Rogers is always going to be fighting an uphill battle as far as earning respect as a serious NBA draft prospect is concerned. Standing somewhere around 6-9, he’s not particularly big for a power forward, and he doesn’t bring any one incredible skill to the table that truly sets him apart from the pack when looking at players at his position in the NBA.

That’s not to say that he doesn’t have anything to offer, though. For one, Rogers is a very good athlete, quick off his feet, even explosive, showing nice quickness, and capable of making all kinds of plays around the rim because of that. Offensively, Rogers is used primarily as a back to the basket post option at Baylor, which isn’t his biggest strength, as he has just average footwork and lacks the size and girth to make much headway posting up inside against other centers, which often forces him to settle for difficult shots. He does do a good job running the floor in transition and cutting to the basket in half-court sets, particularly on pick and roll plays, where he shows good hands and the ability to maneuver his way inside and finish plays effectively thanks to his athleticism and strong overall offensive instincts.

Facing the basket is where Rogers could still stand to improve significantly. Left-handed, he isn’t skilled enough to consistently take his man off the dribble from the high-post and make his way to the basket—often instead just preferring to pull-up off the dribble wildly from mid-range due to his average ball-handling skills. His jumper shows potential, but is still too streaky to be counted on regularly-- he hit just 14 of 37 jump-shot attempts (38%) logged in 20 games, according to Synergy Sports Technology. He does have solid form and touch, though, particularly from 15 to 17 feet, so it’s not of the question that he becomes more comfortable with his jumper in time, which he’ll surely need to in order to take his game to the next level, both literally and figuratively.

Defensively, Rogers isn’t quite as effective as you might hope considering that he will surely have to be a role-player at the next level. His intensity and awareness leave something to be desired on this end of the floor, particularly on the perimeter and defending pick and roll plays, while his lack of size and strength limits his potential as a post-defender inside when matched up against more physically imposing big men. At the collegiate level he is often athletic enough to regardless be able to make plays, but in the NBA things won’t be quite as easy. The fact that he’s a very good rebounder statistically will definitely be a feather in his cap as far as scouts are concerned.

All in all, Rogers has some nice tools to work with, and is clearly not a finished product at this point in time. To make himself stand out as a draft prospect in his senior year, though, he will need to show that he has a bread and butter that teams can count on if they decide to take a chance on him. Right now he looks like someone that will probably need to play in Portsmouth and likely the NBA pre-draft camp, but a big season playing for a very good Baylor squad could help his draft stock substantially.

#7 Curtis Jerrells, 6-1, Senior, Point Guard, Baylor

Jonathan Givony


Baylor Athletics


One of many intriguing storylines we can anticipate developing in the wide-open Big 12 conference is the emergence of Baylor point guard Curtis Jerrells into the national spotlight. Jerrells is the second leading returning scorer in the conference and tops in assists, and is clearly the engine that makes Baylor’s fast-paced offense go. This is a team that likes to run, and Jerrells doesn’t need to be told twice to push the ball up the floor quickly.

Looking at the last time we broke down Jerrells’ game, we see that his numbers remained largely the same between his sophomore and junior seasons. His scoring was up slightly, his field goal percentage down a notch, his assists remained the same, but he managed to cut down significantly on his turnovers, which is an important development. Jerrells is a feast or famine type ‘lead guard’, he’s very ball-dominant, and clearly looks first and foremost to create for himself, before looking to create for others. Part of that is a product of the helter skelter nature in which Baylor plays, and part of that is his own mentality.

Jerrells is a bit undersized for an NBA point guard, but he makes up for that with his excellent quickness, which includes a very nice first step and solid ball-handling skills with either hand. He looks very comfortable running the pick and roll, which is a big staple of Baylor’s half-court offense. He’s a tough player who likes to take the ball strong to the rim and will finish through contact and draw a good amount of fouls. At times he looks spectacular with the moves he makes, like lightning in a bottle, and at times he looks completely out of control, over-penetrating and taking ill-advised shots early in the shot-clock.

Jerrells relies heavily on his 3-point shot as a source of offensive production—43% of his field goal attempts came from beyond the arc, even though he shot just 33% from that range. More than any other player we can recall possibly in recent memory, nearly every shot he takes comes off the dribble—125/145 attempts according to Synergy Sports Technology’s quantified report. He gets great elevation on this shot, but is very streaky due to the degree of difficulty involved in shooting in this manner, as well as due to the fact that his release point is inconsistent—often shooting the ball on the way down. When attempting to shoot a stand-still jumper (on a kickout for example), Jerrells’ poor mechanics get truly exposed, as he brings the ball around the world from right to left with an awkward hitch, and thus takes a long time to get his shot off. Shooting off the dribble he is able to make this hitch much less pronounced, which is probably why he is so much more comfortable getting shots off in that fashion. There are serious question marks about how his shot will extend to NBA range, and whether he’ll be able to get it off at his size.

Defensively, he is not only undersized, but he’s also not all that intense on this side of the floor either, which puts him at a significant disadvantage when being viewed as a potential backup NBA point guard considering his shortcomings in other areas. He gambles a lot and seems to give up on plays too easily, and like a lot of offensive minded young players, it really doesn’t seem like playing defense has ever been a huge priority for him.

Regardless of his very obvious deficiencies, players like Jerrells are definitely capable of making the NBA, as he is very good at creating his own shot, and is a very instinctive scorer in general. He can also make some plays for others, especially on the drive and dish, and there is still room for him to improve on his defense, playmaking and shooting mechanics, which he’ll surely need to. He’s likely going to have to prove himself in settings like the NBA pre-draft camp first, though, unless Baylor has a really spectacular season, which is not out of the question considering their talent level.

#8 Connor Atchley, 6’10, PF/C, Senior, Texas


Texas Athletics


Rodger Bohn

The departure of Kevin Durant to the NBA opened up plenty of scoring opportunities in Texas’ frontcourt, and it seems like Connor Atchley (as well as Damion James) ended up being the biggest benefactor, more than doubling his scoring output from his sophomore to junior seasons. The big man might not have as much long term upside as some of the other players on this list due to the fact that he will be 24 before the 2009 NBA draft rolls around, but still has considerable room for improvement before being labeled a finished product.

Atchley has legit size for an NBA big man, looking every bit of 6’10 (perhaps even taller) and a solid 230 pounds with plenty of room to grow. He is blessed with long arms and a great motor, exerting good effort every time he steps on the hardwood. Athletically, Atchley is a slightly above average leaper and runs the floor well, although his conditioning could use some improvement with him looking quite winded at times late in the game.

As far as intangibles are concerned, there isn’t much more you could ask for. Atchley is a great student and did not have one single scholarship offer before Rick Barnes and co. offered him a full ride in the spring of 2003, and willingly redshirted his freshman campaign in 04-05. Making huge strides over the last few years both physically and skills wise, it is clear that the Houston native is a tireless worker who wants to get better every day.

Atchley does the bulk of his damage on the offensive end as a jump shooter, scoring via both spot up jumpers or working the pick and pop to perfection. He shoots a bit of a set shot, but has shown the ability to consistently stroke it beyond the collegiate three point line against players his own size or bigger. Connor’s jump-shooting (both mid-range and beyond the arc, although strictly with his feet set) accounted for more than half of his total offense, and he shot a sizzling 41.3% from the land of three. For his efforts he ranked 6th in the country amongst all draft prospects in points per possession. He did not garner an incredible amount of possessions, but was extremely efficient in the ones he used, as evidenced by the 54% he shot from the field, despite being essentially a jump-shooter and garbage man.

Adding in the ability to face-up on the perimeter and take his man off the dribble in a straight line would probably help Atchley become slightly more versatile. He would attempt this shot on rare occasion, usually to release a running hook that he attempts to be practicing, but his ball-handling skills and first step aren’t strong enough to make the dribble-drive a consistent part of his offense just yet.

Down low, Atchley has shown a developing right handed jump hook with no counter move whatsoever. Never using his left hand at all severely limits his productivity in the pivot, and it still appears he’s quite raw when given one on one situations on the blocks. The big man’s nice hands and soft touch allow him to catch and finish efficiently down low, which is an asset considering how well he moves off the ball, (particularly in pick and roll situations) and he has proven to be a decent passer when pressured with the ball in his hands. Atchley isn’t what you would call an incredibly explosive big man, but he found a way to finish on an excellent 70.49% of his attempts around the basket according to Synergy Sports Technology’s quantified report, often with a two-handed dunk. How much of that had to do with the quality of the point guard that was next to him is something we’ll find out this upcoming season.

Arguably the top selling point on Atchley as a prospect is his ability on the defensive end. He is a very good shot blocker who is also able to alter a ton of shots, while staying out of foul trouble for the most part. Positionally speaking, he held his own ground against stronger post players such as Michael Beasley and Blake Griffin last season and showed good lateral quickness when those foes faced him up. On the downside, Connor tends to bite for ball fakes a little too much and isn’t quite the rebounder you’d like to see out of a big man prospect, averaging a little over 5 rebounds per game last season, and only 7.6 per-40--quite a poor mark.

Atchley’s ability to shoot the ball from the perimeter at his size and potential on the defensive end are two NBA skills that will keep him firmly supplanted in the minds of NBA scouts, as he has all the makings of an excellent role player, minus the rebounding ability. His production and development throughout his final season at UT will determine whether he is able to be drafted in June or if he will be battling his way through training camp as an undrafted free agent.

#9 Sherron Collins, 5-11, Junior, Point Guard, Kansas


AP


Joey Whelan

Sherron Collins may be the top returning scorer from last season’s national championship team, but he has plenty of work ahead of him. While the Chicago native has shown loads of potential, his work ethic has been called into question as of late. Collins arrived on campus this fall out of shape and according to head basketball coach Bill Self (via CNN/SI), “a month behind where [he] thought he would be.” For a player already fighting an uphill battle due to the fact that he is 5’11” and lacking a typical point guard’s skill set, the junior now has to further prove that he can be a hard worker on and off the court.

As far as his development is concerned, Collins hasn’t seen any major strides in his game since we last wrote him up this time last year. His turnover numbers actually increased slightly, while his shooting efficiency dropped from his freshman campaign. He is still a perimeter shooting threat when he can catch and shoot, but struggles when he has to put the ball on the floor, showing a more inconsistent release point. Collins relies too much on his athleticism, which while excellent, doesn’t always save him around the basket, where he often gets blocked due to his lack of size. He needs to do a better job of recognizing what the defense is giving him, rather than trying to force the issue around the rim, even though he does finish at a relatively good clip there.

Ultimately, Collins needs to develop his point guard skills, particularly his decision making abilities. In his first two seasons of college basketball he didn’t have much of an opportunity to do that playing behind and alongside Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson. With these players gone, the onus now falls on Collins. This is a huge opportunity for him to show that he is more than simply a great athlete with potential. Even more than most players due to the circumstances he was in, what Collins shows in his final two seasons of college basketball will likely have a much larger bearing on where or if he gets drafted than his first two, so it’s probably best to be patient at this point. He has gotten off to a poor start, but with the season still a couple of months away, there is time for Collins to right the ship.

LaceDarius Dunn, 6’4, Shooting Guard, Sophomore, Baylor


Icon SMI


Joseph Treutlein

LaceDarius Dunn had a promising freshman season for the Baylor Bears, being their second leading scorer at 13.6 points per game while only playing 22 minutes per. In addition, he did it on high efficiency, shooting 45% from the field, 42% from three, and 84% from the line, good for a 62% TS%, which would rank him higher than most players on our projected mock for 2009.

Standing 6’4 with a pretty strong frame, Dunn is undersized for a shooting guard, and appears to have just average length to compensate. Athletically, he isn’t great with explosiveness or quickness at either end, and doesn’t get very high around the basket. His tools are certainly good enough to do damage at this level, but he’s a below average athlete by NBA standards. He compensates for these things by being a highly skilled, crafty, and high motor player.

Offensively, it’s hard to talk about Dunn without starting with his jump shot. Over 60% of his shots last season came from behind the three-point arc, where he frequently made opponents pay. His shot is not quite orthodox, boasting a fairly deliberate shooting motion where he brings the ball in front of his face before releasing it, while not getting much lift off the ground. He has excellent touch, though, and is also very good at adjusting to what the defense is giving him, being able to quicken his release when necessary, fade away to create space, or lean in to draw contact. He sometimes over-relies on his versatile shooting abilities, though, leading to awkward shot attempts and bad misses. Dunn is definitely at his best spotting up, but is also very good coming off screens or pulling up off the dribble, being a constant threat to the defense.

Aside from his jump shot, Dunn doesn’t have many other standout offensive abilities yet, though he’s comfortable with the ball in space and in transition, and will drive to the basket if you give him the chance to with his left hand. The right-handed shooter is surprisingly weak with his right hand dribble, though, and will almost never go to the basket in that direction. At the rim, while he seems to have good creativity with the ball, he often doesn’t have the vertical explosiveness to go over opposing players, and thus relies on floaters and runners, which he hits fairly regularly. This is definitely something he should continue to work on, though, as it needs to be a very consistent weapon in his arsenal.

Defensively, Dunn is pesky and has very good fundamentals, while showing good reflexes and a tendency not to bite for pump fakes. He doesn’t have the best lateral quickness, though, so he can be beat by quicker players. He also struggles with screens, as do most college freshman. Off the ball he is attentive and does a good job staying focused on the ball and his man, leading to some smart weakside steals.

After coming on strong towards the end of his freshman season with a 38-point game against Texas Tech (on just 16 shot attempts), Dunn should be looking at an increased role as a sophomore, where he should get more touches and chances to show a more versatile offensive game. Improving his handle and mid-range game should be among his priorities, while becoming more of a combo-guard could also help at his size. Averaging under one assist per game last season, he’s yet to show many flashes of that.

[Vitor]

Big 12 part 3

Spoiler:

#11 Ibrahima Thomas, 6-11, Sophomore, PF/C, Oklahoma State

Jonathan Givony

Despite experiencing an up and down freshman season marred with inconsistency, Ibrahima Thomas comes into this upcoming campaign with some solid playing time and experience underneath his belt, which is exactly what he needed considering his background.

Showing great size at 6-11, with an outstanding wingspan, Thomas is always going to catch people’s attention when he first steps foot on the court. He is about 20-30 pounds from his optimal weight, though, and is not what you would call a very fluid athlete at this point, looking a bit clumsy and uncoordinated the way raw African prospects at times do. His hands are just average and he doesn’t have very much to speak of in the ways of his footwork around the basket.

What’s interesting about Thomas is that he shows an intriguing skill-level facing the basket, being capable of knocking down shots with a pretty nice looking stroke, good enough to hit 11 3-pointers in his freshman season, at an inconsistent 32% clip. This is a nice asset for a player his size to have, but he should not fall in love with it, as he tended to do at times rushing up bad shots immediately once he caught the ball on the perimeter, which led to some very awkward misses in which he did not even draw iron.

As the season progressed, Thomas did a better job of contributing to Oklahoma State, in small doses. He showed some sparks of potential posting up aggressively and knocking down short hook shots and turn-around jumpers inside. Nothing incredible, but enough to show that he is making progress and is willing to use his size and touch to get his team high percentage shots. His timing, decision making skills and all-around offensive polish obviously have a long ways to go, but there may be some room for optimism based on the early results. He showed a pretty decent knack for crashing the offensive glass as well.

On the negative side, Thomas showed very little in the ways of passing ability, turning the ball over five times for every assist he dished out, and only shot a mediocre 58% from the free throw line. He wasn’t much of a shot-blocking presence at all (just 1.1 per 40 minutes), and was incredibly foul prone, averaging 7.1 fouls per-40 on the season. He needs to work on his body to maximize as much of his athleticism as he can (he’s fairly average in this regard), as well as his hands to make him at least somewhat of a consistent threat to catch the ball and finish inside.

Thomas can’t be viewed as anything less than a 4-year prospect at this point in time until he manages to show otherwise, but he will get some looks regardless because of his size, length and budding perimeter skills. The type of work ethic he displays will likely determine how far he is able to make it in professional basketball. He’s playing catch-up right now and has a lot of ground to make up.

#12 Josh Carter, 6’7, SG/SF, Senior, Texas A&M

Joseph Treutlein

After a solid sophomore season, Josh Carter didn’t have quite the breakout junior season he had hoped for, failing to take advantage of the greater offensive role that came his way. While the departure of floor general and shotmaker Acie Law opened up a lot more shots for Carter in the Aggies’ offense, it also decreased the quality of many of those shots, without Law to set them up for him.

Carter did manage to slightly increase his scoring to 12.2 points per game, but with his field goal percentage dropping 7 points to 42%, his three-point percentage dropping 12 points to 38%, and his eFG% dropping a remarkable 13 points to 53%, it’s hard to see that as a good thing.

In terms of what he looked like on the floor, there really wasn’t much different about Carter’s skills, just his role. His shot looked the same and he still was absolutely deadly at times, but he is a much better shooter when he gets his feet set and his body squared, and this season he had defenders sticking him tougher and closing in on him faster, making it harder for him to do those things. Carter does show flashes of ability to hit shots coming off screens, fading away, and pulling up off the dribble, but he doesn’t do it consistently enough, something that was a problem last season as well. After a pretty consistent start to the season in terms of scoring production every night, Carter’s point totals began to fluctuate wildly again towards the latter half of the conference schedule.

With the ball, Carter looks very comfortable in space, and is still capable of making one or two dribble drives to the basket, but he doesn’t take it all the way there often. On the contrary, he’s actually developed a nice mid-range game with runners, floaters, and fadeaways, where he shows good touch and body control. While his ball-handling looks comfortable in space, and he has the first step to get past his man, he struggles to get all the way to the basket because of a high center of gravity, lack of change of direction ability with the ball, a high dribble, and the inability to make advanced moves in space. Off the ball, Carter shows very good recognition of angles and space, doing a good job to cut off screens or lose his man to get open for lay-ups at the basket.

Defensively, Carter makes good use of his length on perimeter defense, and shows a good stance and commitment, but often being assigned to smaller guards, he lacks the lateral quickness to stay in front. His high center of gravity also hurts him when having to change directions, even though he does a good job of getting into squad position. His hustle, length, and athletic abilities allow him to make some weakside plays in terms of blocks and steals, but they are far and few between, as he averages just 0.8 blocks/steals combined per game.

As a senior, the pressure is on Carter to pick up where he left off as a sophomore, and it will be interesting to see if he can bring his shooting percentages back to where they were without so many wide open jumpers. Carter is likely someone we’ll be seeing at the pre-draft camps in the offseason, and he should have ample opportunities to prove he’s worth taking a shot on in the NBA. With a great shooting touch and good size for a wing, he definitely has a chance, but he’s going to need to help himself more than he did as a junior.

#13 Leo Lyons, 6’9, Senior, Power Forward, Missouri

Rodger Bohn

After testing the waters for the 2008 NBA Draft, Lyons received some feedback from NBA scouts and realized very quickly that he would be much better suited returning to college for his senior season. It has been known since his sophomore season that we were looking at an incredibly productive scorer based upon the minutes he played, but he will need to show improvement in the other facets of his game throughout his final year at Mizzou if he hopes to give himself the possibility of being drafted in June.

As we’ve written, there’s very little not to like about Lyons physically and athletically. He fits the mold of today’s face the basket power forward, long and lean, blessed with nice coordination and explosiveness. Moving around the court with great fluidity, you often forget that you are looking at a player standing 6’9.

The bread and butter of Lyons’ game has continued to be his ability to put points on the board in a number of ways. His go-to move would have to be his mid-range jumper, which he is perfectly hitting from a static position or off of the dribble going either way. The first step that he possesses is downright outstanding and enabled him to beat the vast majority of power forwards that he was pegged against off of the dribble. Leo showed off creative ball handling skills from time to time and was outstanding slashing to the rim late in the season for a post player. The senior showed off some pretty nifty passing skills when unable to score for himself, as well.

Defensively, Lyons is a bit of a nightmare, showing very little in terms of man-to-man defense or defensive rebounding ability. He lacks fundamentals on the defensive end, struggles rotating, and gambles for just about any block/steal possible. Lyons also tends to forget to box out quite often, wasting away the superior physical tools he has by letting smaller players corral rebounds. Scouts are certainly going to take a hard look at Lyons improvement on this end of the floor throughout the next 9 months.

Consistency issues have also plagued Leo in the past. On one night, you will feel that you are looking at a “can’t miss” NBA player. Then on the next night, you will walk away feeling like you just saw a talented player who doesn’t really “get it”. Whether or not Lyons is able to grasp how good he can potentially become and play like it will likely decide how far he makes it as a player. Either way, he’s a guy who will still probably get an opportunity to show his stuff to NBA brass at Portsmouth and the Orlando Pre-Draft Camp if he chooses to do so.

#14 DeMarre Carroll, 6-8, Senior, Power Forward, Missouri

Over the past few seasons, combo-forwards and hybrid forwards have become an increasingly popular addition to NBA rosters. This is both good and bad for Missouri senior forward DeMarre Carroll. His 13.0 ppg on 53.6% FG and 6.7 rpg were all career highs and he achieved those numbers while playing four less minutes per game than in his sophomore campaign. Scouts will be watching to see, however, if he is closer to translating his offensive and defensive abilities to the perimeter because right now, he is very much a tweener.

Standing somewhere between 6-7 and 6-8 with a solid wingspan and a slight frame, Carroll is definitely a tweener by NBA standards. He has solid athleticism, running the floor in transition hard, but not looking freakishly explosive finishing around the basket.

The problem is that, like most undersized collegiate power forwards, Carroll’s offensive ability is still very much in transition. The most significant change that has to happen is that he must become a better ball-handler. His handle was erratic last season and while he shows some basic mid-range instincts and slashing abilities, he often looks out of control simply because he cannot dribble that well yet. Similarly, cleaning up his shooting mechanics would help his mid-range and perimeter offense tremendously. Carroll will pull up from mid-range, but his shot is awkward and almost never goes up in the same manner. He has an inconsistent release point and, as evidenced in his 17.6% he shot last year from the perimeter, his shot gets worse the farther out he goes. With young NBA combo-forwards like Renaldo Balkman never developing a consistent long-range jumpshot, it is vital that Carroll shows scouts that his shot has improved from deep.

Like Balkman, though, it is Carroll’s scrappy attitude as well as his willingness to draw contact and attack the basket that are his main sources of offense at the moment, rather than his skill-level. He attacks the basket aggressively, and though sometimes it is clear he does not know what he is going to do with the ball in traffic, he is aggressive on the offensive boards if things do not go as planned. Unlike Balkman, though, Carroll does not handle the ball nearly as well and doesn’t fill up the stat-sheet quite as effectively as he did at the collegiate level.

Carroll looks similarly between-positions on the defensive end. He is a versatile defender, with above average lateral quickness and size to guard multiple positions at the NCAA level. That being said, he’s at his best defensively against perimeter oriented power forwards. He gives guards and wings too much room on the perimeter and frequently fails to close out shooters. It seems at this point to be a problem of awareness rather than a lack of ability, but he must maintain focus and continue to improve his perimeter defense if he wants to have a chance at the next level.

It’s very difficult to evaluate players like Carroll because of the fact that he is caught between positions and plays power forward or center most of the time when he’s on the floor. It is up to him to continue to work on his perimeter skills and prove to NBA scouts that he has potential to make a full transition at the next level.

#15 Byron Eaton, 5-10, Senior, Point Guard, Oklahoma State

Joey Whelan

While the Cowboys struggled as a whole last season, senior point guard Byron Eaton made noticeable strides in his play. The former McDonald’s All-American posted career bests in scoring, rebounding, steals and saw his turnover numbers drop to the lowest they have ever been. In seeing a little more time off the ball than he had in the past, we got an opportunity to see more of Eaton’s offensive abilities.

Physically, Eaton doesn’t pan out as an NBA prospect; plain and simple. Generously listed at 5’11,” he is severely undersized for the point guard position, and he doesn’t possess freakish explosiveness around the rim either. Eaton has struggled with weight problems throughout his career thus far, but has reportedly made strides in this area recently. His plump 243 pound frame allowed him to deal effectively with contact, particularly when attacking the basket, but more often than not he struggled to get a good shot off around the rim because of his small stature and poor elevation. According to Synergy Sports Technology’s quantified report (which looked mostly at OSU’s games against reasonably strong competition), Eaton shot a very low 41% on field goal attempts around the basket.

From the perimeter, Eaton is a decent outside shooter. Nearly 40% of his field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, where he shot a respectable 36.8% last season on 2.9 attempts per game. Where issues arise though is with his actual shot. Eaton has a very flat footed stroke that is quite slow and takes him a while to get off. While he is able to get away with this at the college level, he will almost undoubtedly have real problems getting his shot off against NBA defenders, unless he can find a way to make it more compact. Even against opponents now, Eaton will often wind up taking shots from well beyond the three-point line where defenders are less likely to actively contest his shots.

Once he puts the ball on the floor, Eaton shows some nice ability, but once again is limited by his size and lack of conditioning. He is a solid ball handler with good speed and quickness. Rarely will he have trouble beating defenders off the dribble if he wants to, but from here problems arise. Eaton struggles with his pull up jumper, showing an inconsistent release point on the move, and often not getting himself square before shooting. When he decides to go to the rim instead, he shows great physical toughness and a knack for drawing fouls (5.4 free throw attempts per game last season). When he isn’t bailed out by whistles though, his shot selection is often erratic since he must contend with much bigger defenders.

Eaton’s assist numbers stayed consistent from his sophomore to junior season at around 3.5 per game, but they need to increase substantially. As previously mentioned, he does a solid job of getting into the lane and drawing additional defenders, but Eaton gets tunnel vision when attacking the rim. Rather than looking for open teammates, he often forces up poor shots.

Defensively, Eaton would likely struggle a lot against NBA talent. While he has very quick hands and feet that allow him to come away with over 2 steals per game, these often fail him against bigger, athletic opponents. Despite staying with his man through an entire offensive series, often times opponents can simply elevate right over the top of him for easy looks at the hoop.

There are certainly things to like about Eaton’s game: his toughness, his athleticism, and his aggressive mentality. However, his lack of size, his inconsistency as a scorer and his long, slow shot, make him a long shot at best for the NBA. Certainly he is capable of showing further improvement during his senior season as he did last year, and his new svelte frame (reportedly down 28 pounds) may be able to help him substantially, but in all likelihood, Eaton is destined to be a solid player for a team somewhere in Europe rather than an NBA roster.

[Vitor]

SEC part 1

Spoiler:

#1 Andrew Ogilvy, 6-11, Sophomore, Center, Vanderbilt


Icon SMI


Jonathan Givony

Statistically speaking, Andrew Ogilvy was clearly one of the most impressive freshman in the country last season. The Australian import ranked in the top-25 of 16 different statistical categories in our database, two of those being negative (related to fouls), and has the distinction of being the 6th best returning scorer in the NCAA per-40 minutes pace adjusted. Not only does Ogilvy stand 6-11, he is a true center who does the majority of his damage inside the paint (as evidenced by the 59% he shot from the field), which makes a unique prospect at the NCAA level any way you slice it.

A mobile big man who probably can’t be described as being anything more than just a ‘fair’ athlete by NBA standards, its Ogilvy’s incredibly high skill level which really separates him from the pack. He wants and knows how to establish position deep in the paint, and shows outstanding hands to go along with the ability to knock down jump-hooks with either and terrific touch.

Ogilvy has a great feel for operating inside, always looking in command of where he is and how he wants to attack his matchup. He looks extremely impressive finishing his moves smoothly and elegantly with terrific extension around the rim. His relatively quick feet make him difficult to match up with inside, and he’s capable of scoring in a couple of different ways, including a turnaround jumper, drop-step and up and under moves.

The downside appears to be that Ogilvy isn’t always athletic enough to just rise up and finish over his opponents in traffic, looking more likely to score with a layup or finesse move rather than a dunk, and thus seeing his shot blocked a decent amount. He needs to add at least 10-15 pounds of upper body strength to more comfortably operate against NBA-level big men, but there is very little doubt that his post game should translate to the next level and could be a very valuable asset in the right system.

Ogilvy also gets to the free throw line at a superb rate, being amongst the best in the NCAA in that category last season, and he comes with the added bonus of shooting a very nice percentage from the line, at 76%.

Despite obviously possessing very nice touch and a generally high skill level, Ogilvy didn’t show an incredibly advanced face-up game as a freshman last season. The release point on his shot looks a bit low (coming from just above his chest) but he clearly has the ability to knock down 16-18 foot jump-shots, and he may show more of that this upcoming season, which would be an intriguing development. Likewise, he didn’t put the ball on the floor a great deal either, but seems to have the potential to do so, with either hand even. We’ll see if he feels more comfortable showing off a wider variety of perimeter skills this year, something that would clearly add to his resume.

One of the big issues that prevented Ogilvy from making a bigger splash last season was his consistent struggles with foul problems, which held his minutes in check at just 26 per game. He is clearly nothing more than an average defender at best, as he often gives up position deep in the post to opposing big men, gets backed down incessantly around the rim, struggles to move his feet rotating inside the paint, and displays questionable lateral quickness trying to defend the perimeter with his flat-footed upright stance.

It’s pretty clear that he had never faced the type of athletic big men that the likes of Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas and Mississippi State were able to throw at him, but considering his youth, timing and nice feel for the game (which helped him block nearly a shot and a half per game, mostly coming on the ball), he should be able to adjust better this season. Getting stronger will help, but he’ll need to get tougher and more aggressive as well, particularly on the glass, where he appears to get outhustled at times going after rebounds.

Regardless, there is a lot to like about what Ogilvy brought to the table as a freshman, and with so many underclassmen centers opting to jump ship for the NBA last June, he’s clearly one of the best remaining big men prospects in college basketball—and possibly the most skilled.

#2 Patrick Patterson, 6-8, Sophomore, Power Forward, Kentucky

Jonathan Givony


AP


Few freshman played as big a role for their team as Patrick Patterson did for Kentucky last season. At a shade under 36 minutes per game, only O.J. Mayo and Donte Greene narrowly edged him out amongst the minutes played leader board for freshman in 07-08. That starts to give you an idea about the type of immediate impact Patterson was expected and able to make for the Big Blue, and very little of that is expected to change this upcoming season.

A substantial part of Kentucky’s offense last season revolved around throwing the ball inside to Patterson on the left block, and letting him go to work. He is a true back to the basket presence at the collegiate level, working very hard at establishing deep position inside and then possessing the strength, aggressiveness and girth to just bully his man about as far as he needs to to get his right-handed jump-hook shot or turnaround jumper off. At times he tends to settle for bad shots when he can’t get the type of deep post position he needs to get in his comfort zone, which doesn’t happen as often at the collegiate level as it will in the NBA.

Where Patterson is at his best is moving off the ball and cutting towards the rim for strong finishes around the basket. He has great hands, an outstanding frame, and the toughness and athleticism needed to finish most everything that comes his way. We’re talking about a very high energy player who gets to the free throw line at a nice rate and finishes a terrific 73.4% of his touches in the immediate basket area according to Synergy Sports Technology’s quantified reports.

Where Patterson needs to improve is in becoming more versatile offensively, relying less on the advantages he possesses in the strength and athleticism categories—which will not be as pronounced in the NBA—and increasing his already decent skill-level.

The soft touch on Patterson’s jumper shows lots of potential, but he can still expand his range and consistency. Facing the basket, he rarely puts the ball on the floor to beat his man to the basket, something which would make him more of a threat to operate in the high post. In the low-post, he clearly favors his right-hand even when he’d be much better off using his left hand.

As the level of competition increases, so does the level of advance scouting, and Patterson will need to be able to take what the defense gives him, which means rounding out his entire offensive game.

Defensively, Patterson is a bit undersized at around 6-8, but he makes up for that and then some with his tremendous 7-2 wingspan. He has the strength to contain his matchup in the post, the aggressiveness to not back down from anyone, and the length to contest most every attempt from the player he’s defending. He has the tools to be outstanding in this area, and indeed shows flashes of brilliance from time to time. The problem is that at times he seems to give up too much space in the paint and rely excessively on his physical tools rather than playing fundamentally sound basketball. This is most evident in the rebounding department, where Patterson makes a big impact on the offensive glass, but is surprisingly pedestrian on the defensive end. Doing a better job of boxing out his matchup would make him much more effective here most likely.

Big men with Patterson’s athleticism, length, motor and budding skill level almost always find their way into the NBA, in some capacity. The question is how much he’ll still improve from here, and what kind of role can be expected from him at the next level. As long as he stays healthy (his season was cut short last year with a broken foot), there’s a more than decent chance that this will be Patterson’s last year at Kentucky. How productive he is this season and how far he can help Kentucky get in the tournament will play a large part in how high he can elevate his draft stock.

#3 Tyler Smith, 6’6, Junior, SF/PF, Tennessee


Icon SMI


Rodger Bohn

Tyler Smith followed up his stellar debut at Iowa with an even better season as a sophomore at Tennessee, after being granted a hardship transfer waiver due to his father’s health. He has continued to make great strides transitioning from the power forward to the small forward position, and proved to be one of the best passing small forwards in the collegiate ranks last season.

Quite impressive was the fact that Smith was able to match or surpass his production from his freshman season at Tennessee despite playing 8 minutes less per game. His field goal percentage jumped from 44% to nearly 54%, his rebounding rate increased dramatically, he blocked more shots, dished out nearly just as many assists, cut down on his turnovers, and shot the ball much better from beyond the arc. He ranks third in assists per 40 minutes amongst returning small forward prospects, and fourth amongst returning small forwards in assist to turnover ratio. Not only is this a testament to the nice court vision that he shows, but also tells you about his ever-improving decision making skills.

The main way that Smith puts points on the board would be through slashing to the rim and cutting towards the basket. Not an outstanding ball handler, he tends to put the ball down a couple of times with his head down in a straight line to get to the rim. When cut off, he finds ways to elude defenders through a series of spin moves or pulling up for a short jumper. His quickness and all-around activity level gets him to the free throw line at a solid rate, where he shoots an improvable 71% from the stripe.

Defense is one area of the court where Smith stands out, having completely bought into Bruce Pearl’s philosophy of intense ball pressure. He moves well laterally, possesses nice length, and has shown good maturity and activity on this end of the floor. Smith picked up his rebounding during his sophomore year, and proved to be one of the team’s better rotating defenders. Able to guard both forward positions, the versatility that Tyler presents on this end of the floor makes him very appealing as an NBA prospect.

The primary weakness in Smith’s game continues to center around his outside shot. Although he has made some serious improvement from his freshman to sophomore year, he still remains an inconsistent threat from beyond the arc and could really clean up the mechanics of his shot. Despite shooting nearly 38% from beyond the arc, Smith only attempted one attempt from that range beyond there per game, which tells you about the amount of confidence he has in that part of his game. To be able to play the small forward position full-time in the NBA, scouts would like to be able to see him expanding his range out to the NBA line eventually, and be a consistent threat to make open shots with his feet set. The former Tennessee prep star still tends to drive left the majority of the time, going towards his off hand over 65% of the time he takes the ball to the basket. Despite cutting down on his turnover rate recently, he can still get even better in this area.

Age is a bit of a concern for Smith, who was originally a class of 2005 high school prospect. He is 22 years old at the moment, having being forced to spend a year at the prep school ranks after not qualifying out of high school. On the bright side, Smith is far from a finished product and still has two years to hone his perimeter skills.

As a junior, testing the waters will certainly be an option for Smith at the conclusion of this season. He would surely be a player who would receive an invite to the Orlando Pre-Draft Camp, and will definitely make a case for himself to be considered a first round pick if he continues to fill out some of the holes in his game.

#4 Nick Calathes, 6’5, PG/SG, Sophomore, Florida


AP


Joseph Treutlein

While he wasn’t as publicly visible as his fellow McDonald’s All Americans in his freshman season, Nick Calathes quietly put together a very strong initial campaign, immediately stepping in as Florida’s most important player. The versatile and highly skilled Calathes filled up the box scores frequently, averaging over 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game, notching one triple double and a few near ones as well. He stood out in many areas up against the entire NCAA, ranking 3rd in assists per 40 minutes pace adjusted in our entire database, and 14th in assist-to-turnover ratio.

On the offensive end, there are many things to like about Calathes’ game, starting with his point guard abilities. Calathes’ high skill level stands out in a lot of little ways: his low controlled dribble with both hands, his efficiency in pulling off advanced moves, his ability to throw all kinds of passes, one handed or two handed, with great precision, and his quickness transitioning from dribbles into passes. He uses all these tools along with his excellent court vision and decision-making abilities to distribute the ball around Florida’s offense, mostly getting the job done on quick entry passes or simple one/two dribble drive-and-dishes.

He’s not going to blow his defender away with a great first step (which he doesn’t have), weaving his way through the lane and making highlight reel plays, but he consistently finds seams in the defense and makes good reads to spread the ball around and create a lot of open shots. He also does a good job whether he’s the man bringing the ball up the court or playing off it from the wing, playing both roles well and not trying to do too much.

As a scorer, Calathes is definitely at his best with his set spot-up shot, which besides having a low release point in front of his face, doesn’t have any real issues. Unfortunately, while his shot works fine when he’s open with his feet set, he struggles more when he’s guarded or coming off a screen, as the low release point makes it easy to alter. According to stats logged by Synergy Sports Technology, Calathes netted 1.19 points per possession on catch-and-shoot situations when not guarded, but went all the way down to 0.77 when guarded. Slightly tweaking that issue with his shot could definitely help this out over time, and will be even more important against longer, more athletic opponents at the next level.

One area where Calathes really does struggle on the offensive end is scoring in the paint, as he lacks vertical explosiveness and isn’t the best creator around the rim, leading to a lot of tough shot attempts and blocked shots, especially when dealing with weakside help. While Calathes does a really great job pursuing his own misses and scoring on follow-ups, his efficiency around the basket could certainly still improve, and adding a floater or runner to his arsenal would definitely help, as it’s something he rarely goes to. Adding that dimension to his game to compensate for his lack of explosiveness around the hoop could really push his game to the next level, and it should be among his main priorities moving forward.

On the defensive end, while Calathes is smart, focused, and hard-working, he suffers against quicker foes due to below average lateral quickness. He compensates for this by having good reflexes, positioning, and a strong, fundamental stance, but it’s definitely something scouts will be concerned about projecting him to the next level as a point guard or combo guard.

Calathes should be able to pick up right where he left off last season, and if he’s made strides in any of his weaker areas, he could become one of college’s most versatile and effective players. While he was consistent in scoring output last season, rarely dipping below double digits, he could certainly help himself to be a bit more consistent, as his 43% FG% and 37% 3PT% are still improvable considering his skill-level. Looking ahead to the next level, Calathes would probably be best served spending a bit more time at the college level honing his skills, which his game is heavily reliant upon, but with a breakout sophomore season, the draft could certainly be in the picture this year.

#5 Jarvis Varnado, 6’9”, PF/C, Junior, Mississippi State


AP


Joey Whelan

We took a look at Varnado late last season so there isn’t much new to report on him at this point. What we do know is that with the departures of Charles Rhodes and Jamont Gordon, Varnado will be expected to shoulder a much bigger offensive load than he has in the past for the Mississippi State. The junior is the top returning scorer in the frontcourt and the team’s top returning rebounder.

As has been mentioned in the past, Varnado is a tremendous athlete. His length, leaping ability and timing make him a force on the defensive end where he is a nightmare for opponents in the paint. At 6’9” he is maybe a tad undersized for a post player, but what really hinders him is his tremendously narrow frame. The reports last season were that Varnado has bulked up to 210 pounds, but from what we were able to see from him at the Adidas Nations event in Dallas last month, he still needs to put on a good 20 pounds before he can consistently hold his ground on the block. His narrow shoulders don’t appear as though they support the type of natural filling out that he needs to go through.

The real question mark offensively this season for Varnado will be how much he has developed his skill work with his back to the basket. Last season he rarely received the ball outside of open dump offs around the rim simply, because his moves were so underdeveloped. A lack of footwork and strength often left Varnado spinning and shooting wherever he was regardless of his angle to the basket, and he lacks the touch needed to convert on these type of difficult maneuvers.

Up to this point what has really made Varnado a threat offensively has been his tenacity as an offensive rebounder. While he was only credited with 2.2 offensive boards per game last season, he got his hands on plenty of other loose balls, even if it was simply tipping one up in the air to keep a play alive. Where his lack of strength came back to hurt him here was often rather than coming down with the ball and going back up strong with it, he would have to settle for trying to tip in rebounds over opponents. While he has been effective doing this, he would also be better served by coming down with the ball and getting himself a higher percentage shot.

Defense is still where Varnado is going to garner the most interest, having the ability to simply change a game at the collegiate level. As a sophomore last season he could easily lay claim to being the top shot blocker in the country, averaging 4.6 per game in only 28.5 minutes, and 6.3 per 40 minutes pace adjusted. Additionally, he recorded three games in which he blocked 10 shots. He has great timing and doesn’t appear to be overly anxious to block shots, instead waiting for his opponents to go up before attempting a swat. Still, the rest of Varnado’s defensive game needs to improve. He often looks lost outside the paint, not running the floor well or providing effective help defense.

At this point, unless he makes huge strides this season, Varnado is likely going to need to be a four-year prospect. This season will be a good test for him, as he now must become more of a factor in the Bulldog’s offense. While there have been hints of a developing mid-range jumper, he must first become a more effective low post scorer, and adding weight would be a step in the right direction for him. Showing more hustle as a perimeter defender too would only add to his growing reputation as a stopper on the other end of the floor. It is likely Varnado will draw interest this season simply because of his length and athleticism, as so many players of his make-up do. Showing improvements in his skill set this season will lift him from simply an intriguing athlete to a legitimate NBA prospect.

[Vitor]

SEC part 2

Spoiler:

#6 Chandler Parsons, 6’9, Sophomore, SF/PF, Florida


Icon SMI


Kyle Nelson

On a Florida roster filled to the brim with young talent, such as Marreese Speights and Nick Calathes, sophomore combo-forward Chandler Parsons was often overlooked in his freshman season. In a reserve role, he quietly delivered solid numbers to the tune of 8.1 ppg (47.2% FG, 32.4% 3FG, 62.7% FT), 4.0 rpg, and 1.4 apg in 20.7 minutes per game. This coming season, with Marreese Speights lost to the NBA ranks, Parsons will be relied upon to take on a more significant role in Billy Donovan’s offense.

Standing 6’9 and allegedly weighing about 213 pounds after an aggressive strength-training regimen this summer, Parsons has spectacular size for the wing and should be better equipped to play in the post. Parsons is a good athlete, looking quite mobile and fluid in his movements for a player his size. His work ethic is well documented as well as and should allow him to continue to work on his physical profile throughout his time in Gainesville.

Offensively, Parsons is a prototypical collegiate combo-forward, most known at this point for his streaky perimeter shooting. According to Synergy Sports Technology’s Statistics Database, spot-up jumpshots consisted of 35.7% of his offense. His shooting motion looks fairly good at this stage with his feet set, but his stroke loses significant accuracy when rushed or forced to pull up off the dribble. Parsons needs to work quickening the speed of his release, as his somewhat deliberate mechanics often take too long to get off. Parsons has nice touch and solid range on his perimeter shot and looks to be able to develop into a very good shooter in the future should he continue to improve on his consistency.

Elsewhere on the offensive end, Parsons is not nearly as developed. His most glaring weakness at this stage is his ball-handling ability. He dribbles the ball far too high and visibly slows down with the ball in his hands. If he could improve in this area, his offensive game looks as though it would expand significantly. He has shown the ability to get to the basket off of the dribble utilizing his solid first step, quickness, and outstanding touch around the basket, as well as flashes of a mid-range game. That being said, Parsons shows neither skill with any sort of consistency and must show such improvements during this upcoming season if he wants scouts to consider him a potential small forward at the next level. 50% of his attempts from the field currently come from beyond the arc, which tells you a bit about his mentality and polish as a slasher.

Parsons spends most of his time away from the basket, but when he decides to play in the post, he is not incredibly effective. His added bulk should help, but Parsons does not have a very advanced post arsenal outside of using his size and quickness to get around defenders to the hoop. He shows outstanding touch around the basket and does a good job positioning himself for put-backs, but expanding his post-game is another area where Parsons must improve next year, especially considering the fact that he’s one of Florida’s top returning players with any significant size.

Defensively, Parsons isn’t yet anything to write home about, but he looks to have the potential to be a solid defender in the future. Utilizing his long arms and solid lateral quickness, Parsons has the ability to guard collegiate wings. In the awareness department, Parsons has a long way to go. He gives his man too much room on the perimeter and often gives up shots because of his inability to close his man out. In the post, Parsons lacked the strength to efficiently defend his man and it remains to be seen whether or not his off-season work will positively influence his post defense, specifically his lackluster rebounding numbers.

Parsons is nowhere near a finished product and would likely be best suited staying at Florida for two to three more seasons. Like most collegiate combo-forwards, there is certainly a wait-and-see aspect in terms of Parsons’s development. If he continues to progress, however, he could emerge as one of the more interesting prospects in the SEC and cement his place as a legitimate draft contender. That being said, considering how well Billy Donovan and his staff have developed players in the past, particularly between their freshman and sophomore seasons, don’t be surprised if you hear the name Chandler Parsons more often during this coming year.

#7 Alonzo Gee, 6’6, SG/SF, Senior, Alabama


AP


Joseph Treutlein

Alonzo Gee has done a good job steadily improving his game in his three years at Alabama, and could place himself into draft discussions by continuing to do so as a senior. Gee upped his points and rebounds per game while dropping his turnovers as a junior, though the increased usage also hurt him on the efficiency end, as his FG% dropped to 42% and his 3PT% to 31%. Even worse, his overall TS% is just 50%, which is fifth worst among every senior in our entire database.

Looking at Gee’s game, as has been mentioned before, the first thing that stands out is his outstanding athleticism and build, as he’s very explosive and strong for a small forward, with a body more mature than his age. His skills still haven’t quite caught up to his physical gifts, but he’s been making progress, and he’s definitely not just an athlete.

On the offensive end, Gee’s at his best attacking the basket, using his explosive first step on straight-line drives and going up strong over the opposition. Despite not having great creativity at the rim, he makes up for it with excellent explosiveness and the ability to finish through contact or draw contact to get to the line. His dribble is still a work in progress, especially his left hand, and his dribble with either hand can look high and awkward at times, but he’s effective when he gets the right openings, quickly leaving defenders in his dust when he has a driving lane. While his crossover has developed well and doesn’t look bad, he doesn’t look very fluid when changing directions with the ball, even when just making subtle misdirection steps. Gee’s also developed a decent right-handed floater to use in the lane, and while it’s still a work in progress, it’s fairly effective already.

While Gee does a good job at the basket, converting for 1.25 points per possession on shots around the rim (data courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology), his PPP falls off to a very low 0.85 on all jump shots, which account for nearly half of his entire offense. This is one of the primary reasons his efficiency is so low at this point.

Gee doesn’t have a bad jump shot, and is actually pretty good when open, whether he’s spotting up or pulling up. In these situations, his shot is fairly consistent without many mechanical problems, the biggest minor issue being he doesn’t always fully extend his release. The problem comes when he’s guarded by defenders. Whether pulling up off the dribble or spotting up, in these situations, his shot runs into all kinds of problems. He often fades away with the ball, not getting his legs underneath him, the inconsistency of his extension becomes more severe, and he tends to rush his shooting motion in general. All of these issues contribute to his PPP on guarded jump shots being a very bad 0.56, compared to 1.16 when unguarded. The good news for Gee is that there probably won’t be many teams at the next level requiring him to take so many closely guarded jump shots, but the bad news is with Richard Hendrix gone, more of the offensive responsibility will likely fall his way, requiring him to create these shots at least as much as he did last season, if not more. If he can improve on this problem area, it would do great things for both his efficiency and his draft stock.

On the defensive end, Gee does a good job on man defense, playing aggressive and effective defense. His defensive stance is inconsistent, and arguably could even be called sloppy, as he goes in and out of fundamental stance randomly, but his foot speed is pretty good, and his length and athleticism allow him to often recover from behind when beat. He has a lot of bad habits that could become more severe problems at the next level, but he shows very good potential as an individual defender with his tools. Off the ball, he’s not quite as effective, losing focus and sagging off his man at times, while also not doing a great job fighting through screens, but once again, his athleticism and length allow him to make up for that when he rushes out to contest shots, which he does do consistently.

While Gee is still somewhat of a project player, as his skills, while developing, are largely unrefined, he’s made great strides in his time in college, and seems to be continuing to improve, with a few decent weapons already at his disposal. His potential would most likely be as a role playing defensive wing who can slash and spot up shoot, so working on those areas should be his biggest priority. Continuing to improve his ball-handling also wouldn’t hurt, but he’s still awhile away from the point where NBA teams would be asking him to use that skill consistently. Looking at the draft, he could certainly be in second round discussions, and is someone scouts will almost undoubtedly like to see in the pre-draft camps.

#8 Marcus Thornton, 6-4, Senior, Shooting Guard, LSU


LSU Athletics


Jonathan Givony

The second leading scorer in the SEC last season, and the top returning one now that Shan Foster has graduated, there is very little doubt that Marcus Thornton was able to make an immediate impact on the scoreboard for LSU right out of Kilgore Junior College. Slightly undersized at 6-4, with nice athleticism and a solid frame, Thornton clearly has the physical tools needed to make his presence felt in the SEC. Now going into his final season of collegiate eligibility, Thornton has a chance to improve his standing in the eyes of NBA types by delivering a more balanced offering individually, while also winning more games. The two are clearly correlated with each other.

There is a lot to like here in terms of pure natural ability. Averaging just a hair under 20 points per game last season, Thornton can obviously be described as a “scorer” first and foremost. Although he’s much more than just a spot-up shooter, it’s his shooting stroke that provides him with a large part of his production, as evidenced by the fact that 50% of his field goal attempts came from behind the arc.

When given a second to set his feet and get his shot off, there aren’t many players anywhere in the NCAA who are more effective than Thornton. He sets his feet and goes into his shooting motion very quickly, possessing a very fluid and natural stroke that yields great results as long as he isn’t forced to rush too much. Thornton can heat up very quickly and go off on ridiculous scoring barrages at times, as he showed in the SEC slate last season, where he eclipsed the 35 point mark on three separate occasions (going a combined 19 of 34 from behind the arc in the process).

When he is forced (or just decides) to rush, though, and especially shooting off the dribble, Thornton’s accuracy drops off dramatically, as he doesn’t get enough legs underneath his shot and typically comes up short or even doesn’t draw iron. Being such a natural scoring talent, capable of making shots with an incredibly high-degree of difficulty, he seems to want to try to convert these type of attempts every time down the floor seemingly, which lowers his percentages significantly. He ranked 13th amongst all players in our database at field goal attempts per-40 minutes pace adjusted, and 17th in field goal attempts per possession, despite not really showing the type of shooting efficiency needed to back up carrying such a large load offensively.

Thornton’s shot-selection appears to have a very long ways to go, as he takes a couple of terrible shots each game that you wouldn’t even expect to see in a junior college game. Off-balance, early in the shot clock, with a hand in his face and no one underneath the basket, it’s not hard to come to the conclusion at times that he’s playing for himself (and his stats) and no one else. There is simply no other explanation why he would take some of the shots he does.

This was a problem that plagued LSU’s entire team (a big reason they had such a bad season), but no one exemplified this problem more than him. With a new coaching staff in place coming in from a completely different type of culture than LSU has seen in recent years, it will be fascinating to see if they are able to change some of the bad habits players like Thornton have acquired. It must be said that despite his poor shot-selection, Thornton still managed to hit nearly three 3-pointers per game on a 38% clip, which is pretty impressive.

Looking beyond Thornton’s perimeter game, there seems to be room for improvement as well. Fairly quick, strong, and extremely high-energy (which all combined also makes him one of the best offensive rebounding shooting guards in the NCAA), Thornton is capable of getting to the rim and/or free throw line relatively well, and looks extremely tough finishing shots in traffic at times. He’s nothing more than an average ball-handler, though, which hurts him when trying to create his own shot and finish around the rim considering his already average size and leaping ability. By the time he gets into the paint, he often looks out of control already, which is part of the reason he averaged 50% more turnovers than assists. These are correctable flaws, though, largely a matter of polish and experience, things that Thornton is obviously lacking in currently, but can still improve on significantly.

Defensively, Thornton will make some plays from time to time (his length and strength help him in this area), but he can’t be described as being anything more than average. Besides lacking an inch or two compared to the prototypical NBA shooting guard, he also lacks intensity and awareness on this end too. This shows up most in his ability to defend the pick and roll, as he regularly gets buried behind screens and doesn’t put much of an effort into knowing where he is supposed to be on the floor. This again seemed to be a problem with LSU as a whole, so it will be interesting to see how things look this upcoming season under a new coaching regime. If Thornton can show that he can be relied upon to defend his position at the next level, his chances of making it will improve substantially, so this is something he must work seriously on over the next year.

All in all, Thornton is going to get extended looks this fall and spring from the NBA, as there just aren’t that many players in college basketball with his natural scoring ability, even if his flaws are quite obvious. There are a number of adjustments he needs to make to his game, mostly in terms of his mentality and overall approach, but also by rounding out his all-around skill-set. He has the potential to make an NBA team, or even get drafted possibly (if Joe Crawford can, then he surely can too), but a lot of that will come down to the type of season he has at LSU, and how he performs during the pre-draft process.

#9 Chris Johnson, 6-11, Senior, PF/C, LSU


LSU Athletics


Kyle Nelson

As you can read by following the link to his profile, we wrote extensively about LSU’s 6’11, 190 pound power forward Chris Johnson at the end of last season. He is an interesting prospect in the deep and talented SEC because of his size, athleticism, and versatility, but he is still very much a developing player who has yet to reach his full potential. Last year, the 23 year old senior had the opportunity to play more minutes than ever in his career and responded with career highs of 11.6 ppg (52.5% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 85.2% FT), 6.6 rpg, and 2.6 bpg. This season, however, more progress is expected from Johnson, and if he wants to remain wants to remain relevant in the mind of NBA scouts, it will be essential that he delivers.

First, Johnson will have to improve some of his glaring weaknesses. While there is likely little hope of correcting his extremely slight frame, Johnson must work to show that he can man the post at least part-time at the collegiate level. He has shown promise with his footwork and very nice quickness and leaping ability in the paint, but his lack of bulk makes it extremely difficult for him to post up and keep his position. Lacking the lateral quickness to play on the perimeter at the next level, it’s going to be essential for Johnson to show improvements dealing with contact on the interior.

Similarly, Johnson is going to have to continue to work on his raw perimeter skills. His jump-shot, one of the principal weapons in his offensive arsenal is extremely hit or miss at this point. First and foremost, it is necessary for him to develop a consistent shooting motion. Then, he should work to remove excess motion, specifically kicking his legs out and falling away from the basket from his shot. Thanks to his length and his extremely high release point, his jump-shot could be incredibly difficult to defend if he can improve.

Last season, Johnson showed tantalizing offensive potential on occasions, sometimes creating his own shot from mid-range or other times driving to the basket from the perimeter and in transition. Though these are by no means staples in his offensive repertoire, he should look to continue to expand his offense next season and prove to scouts that he is not just another spot-up-shooting big man.

Defensively, Johnson will have to prove that he has a position. He had trouble staying in front of perimeter players, and in the post he lacked the strength to be very effective against back-to-the-basket big men.

The odds are somewhat against Johnson, as at the end of the day he is a 6’11, 190 pound face-up power forward with a developing skill-set that oftentimes does not involve post play. If he can prove, however, that he is still improving and should he have a good senior season, then there is a chance that somebody will give him a serious look on draft night.

#10 Tasmin Mitchell, 6'7, Redshirt Junior, Small Forward, LSU


Icon SMI


Rodger Bohn

Tasmin Mitchell looks to rebound this year after suffering a horrendous ankle injury as a sophomore just three games into his season. It appears as if he will be granted a medical redshirt, leaving him two years to show his stuff to NBA brass. The departure of Anthony Randolph to the NBA and de-commitment of current UCLA big man J'Mison Morgan has opened up plenty of opportunity for Mitchell to put points on the board this year for the Tigers.

Standing 6'7 and weighing a legit 235 pounds, Mitchell fits the ideal mold physically of a power wing. He is incredibly strong and uses his strength to his maximum advantage, making up for some of the deficiencies that he has. He is not blessed with an outstanding wingspan, nor is he overly athletic, but he uses his cerebral style of play and high basketball IQ to overcome his athletic shortcomings.

Mitchell appears to be an absolute coach's dream as far as intangibles are concerned. He is a vocal leader who plays every minute on the court as if it were his last, diving on the ball for loose balls and constantly hustling for rebounds out of his area. Blessed with a high basketball IQ, Tasmin seems to have a knowledge of the game that is uncommon amongst most players his age.

Offensively, Mitchell puts points on the board in a variety of ways. He shows a strong dribble drive when going towards his right, finishing well around the rim with either hand. The Louisiana native is also strong enough to post smaller defenders, and even shot the ball with 37.6 accuracy from beyond the arc. A strong mid-range jumper was also shown, giving him a nice arsenal of skills for a player looking to show scouts that he can transition from the power forward position. He also scores a nice amount of points through simply being at the right place at the right time, seemingly always flashing in the proper areas of the defense to free himself up for open looks.

Passing the ball is one area that Tasmin has shown nice promise, primarily due to his high basketball IQ. Not a guy who is going to completely collapse a defense, he does a good job of finding open shooters when he is cut off en route to the rim.

Ball-handling is an area of concern for Mitchell, especially going left. He drove left only 25.81% of the time as a sophomore, looking increasingly uncomfortable when doing so. Even when going right, the former McDonald's All-American shows off a high handle that can be quite erratic at times.

While Mitchell has improved mightily shooting the ball, he could still use some serious polish before he will be considered a threat from beyond the arc at the next level. His mechanics can be a bit wild at times and his shot is a bit slow, with most of his made three pointers being when he was left completely open. These are areas that can be fixed with proper skill training and development, but should be identified before he makes the jump to the NBA.

There is little not to like about Tasmin on the defensive end, though. He is strong enough to guard power forwards and quick enough to guard wings, making him incredibly versatile. Mitchell is able to corral a nice amount of steals without over gambling, and is also a strong rebounder for a small forward, bringing in about 6 rebounds per game.

This season will be crucial for Mitchell to prove that he is able to live up to the acclaim that he had as a prep star, ranked 10th in the class of 2005 according to the RSCI. A strong season will help put Mitchell back on the NBA radar, and it appears that he could very well be in line to do that under new LSU coach Trent Johnson, who will probably value his all-around skill-set dearly.

[Vitor]

SEC part 3

Spoiler:

#6 Chris Warren, 5’11, Sophomore, Point Guard, Mississippi


Icon SMI


Joseph Treutlein

Not many freshman come into college, and from the instant they step on the court, are relied upon as their team’s go-to player. Chris Warren did that this past season, leading his team in minutes, scoring, and assists, while also leading them to a very strong 13-0 start. Unfortunately the success was short lived, as Ole Miss went a disappointing 7-9 in SEC conference play, but Warren stayed hot most of the season, scoring in double digits in all but four games, and showing very good poise for a freshman floor general.

Warren stands a slight 5’11, 170 pounds, with a frame that doesn’t look like it’s going to support significantly more weight in the future. A good, but not great athlete, Warren excels with quickness and change of direction ability, though he doesn’t have a blazing first step or very good vertical explosiveness.

As a point guard, Warren creates in many different ways, doing a good job keeping his head up while showing very good court vision. He excels most by finding angles and passing lanes for post entry passes, showing great precision and vision on those passes, making things very easy for big man teammate Dwayne Curtis this past season. Warren also does a good job on drive-and-dishes, both on simple one-dribble penetrations for kickouts, or by weaving through the lane and making dumpoffs. One thing he also does very well is not telegraphing his passes, never making it obvious to the defense what he’s planning to do. While Warren shows a lot of great abilities as a point guard, his team’s offense didn’t always have the greatest flow this past season, which at times fell on his shoulders. He can hold on to the ball for too long waiting for things to develop, getting the team’s offense out of rhythm, though as a freshman who had to step in as a starting point guard immediately, it’s not something to be hugely concerned about yet.

As a ball-handler, Warren looks very good the vast majority of the time, showing a controlled dribble low to the ground, being able to handle the ball with both hands, and having a decent array of advanced moves. Since he doesn’t have the greatest first step, he relies a lot on getting his defender off balance or using screens, doing a very good job of mixing in crossovers, hesitation dribbles, and doing a good job changing gears with the ball. Warren’s biggest problem in the ball-handling department is he gets a little sloppy with the ball at times when reacting to pressure defense, letting the ball get away from him or making foolish errors that seem partly a result of getting flustered. It appears this may partly be a mental issue, and is something that should likely improve with time.

As a scorer, Warren is clearly at his best as a shooter, with a very high 58% of his shots coming from behind the arc this season, where he shot a strong 39%. His spot-up shot is very close to textbook form, possessing excellent extension and follow-through, with a high, quick, and consistent release. His foot placement varies from his right foot being barely in front of his left to his right foot being so far ahead that his body’s at a near 45* angle, but this doesn’t seem to affect his shot much at all. He isn’t affected when he has a hand in his face either, showing good poise and rarely altering his shot due to that. As a pull-up shooter, Warren is very good coming out of static and near-static positions, but his form falls off terribly when he’s shooting on the move, with him showing bad tendencies to fade away, get off balance, not get his legs underneath him, and not hold his follow through. The results also fall off significantly in these situations.

Attacking the basket, Warren shows nice ability to adjust in mid-air, being able to switch hands with the ball, contort his body to avoid contact, and use good creativity at the rim. Unfortunately, this usually isn’t enough to get it done in the half-court, where Warren just lacks the size and strength to consistently get it done at the basket. He shows flashes of a right-handed floater that has decent effectiveness, but he really needs to improve it to become a more consistent threat in the lane.

On the defensive end, Warren shows a pretty good stance on the ball and has good lateral quickness, even showing the ability to recover laterally or play tough defense from his man’s side when he loses position, but he can get overpowered or shot over against larger opponents, which is a concern. Where Warren really struggles on defense, though, is getting around screens, often going under and not fighting hard when he goes over, which has a lot to do with his slight build and should be a long-term concern.

Warren will probably get more attention as a sophomore, and with teammate Dwayne Curtis departing, will be relied upon even more as a scorer. This could be a problem if he doesn’t develop a more consistent scoring game in the lane or cut down on the on-the-move jumpers, as his field-goal percentage was already below 40% this year, with his TS% only coming in at 54%. It’s tough to peg Warren’s NBA potential at this stage, as he certainly will need some more time in college, but he definitely appears to have the skills and mentality to have a good chance at making a roster or getting drafted down the road, even despite his size, which will always be working against him.

#7 Wayne Chism, 6-9, Junior, Power Forward, Tennessee


AP


Kyle Nelson

With a stellar recruiting class coming in this season, Bruce Pearl’s Tennessee Volunteers look to be the toast of the SEC. The veterans are not half bad either, led by lottery hopeful Tyler Smith, point forward J.P. Prince, 6’10 center Brian Williams, and perhaps most importantly, junior power forward Wayne Chism. Chism made notable strides last season in terms of diversifying his offensive game and, with more consistency this coming year, could emerge as one of the better big men in the SEC. Whether or not he is an NBA prospect at this point is unclear, but with more spotlight in Knoxville this year, he will have all of the opportunities in the world to prove himself as one.

Standing at what looks to be a legitimate 6’9 with a good frame, Chism certainly looks the collegiate part. In terms of the NBA, he is an inch or two shorter than the prototypical power forward and it looks as though he could spend some time in the weight room before taking the next step. While he has decent quickness for the post, however, he is a fairly underwhelming leaper . By no means a bad athlete, it regardless won’t be his natural physical tools that force NBA scouts to give him a second look.

Offensively, there is a lot to like about Chism and a lot to dislike. Having made his reputation as a face-up power forward, his percentages leave much to be desired, as last year he regressed to shooting just 32.2% from the beyond the arc on 2.5 attempts per game. Chism has a very quick release and usually shows a high release point that allows him to get his shot off against most post defenders at the collegiate level. The problem, however, are his mechanics, which can be described as erratic at best. Watching his shots bounce off of the rim or off of the backboard, it is clear he needs to work on releasing the ball the same way every time, making sure that his form is consistent, not rushing his attempts, cleaning up his footwork, as well as working on going up straight while shooting instead of jumping into his shot. According to Synergy, jump-shots account for 35% of his offense, so it is absolutely essential that he showcases a more consistent jumper next season.

While most collegiate jump-shooting post men are allergic to the post, one of the nicer aspects to Chism’s offensive arsenal is that he has shown some promise in this area. He has good hands and his touch around the basket is rapidly improving, which despite his shoddy percentages (i.e. 47% FG) allow him to do a decent amount of damage in the post. His quickness and developing footwork make his back to the basket game quite moderately effective at this level, as he relies on turnaround jumpers, jump-hooks, and the occasional offensive rebound and put back for a majority of his post scoring.

There is some concern about how this part of his game might translate to the next level, though, as he is not very strong, nor particularly explosive or tough around the basket, which may hinder him competing against NBA caliber big men. He struggles to finish around the basket already at this level on occasion, blowing more shots around the rim than you’d hope for considering his size.

The other problems that face Chism offensively, though, are very clear. For one, he shoots an abysmal 56% from the foul line, which is certainly problematic considering his reputation as a shooter. He also rarely puts the ball on the floor to beat his defender off the dribble, which is a very strong indictment of his lack of ball-handling abilities. Considering that he is not going to wow NBA scouts in any other specific category, it is up to Chism to put in the work to developing the complete offensive arsenal of a face-up power forward. If he can show flashes of such skills this year, he should get some attention from scouts.

Defensively, Chism has a lot of work to do. For one, he is quite foul prone, averaging 3.0 fouls per game in just 22.4 minutes per game. He gets a majority of these fouls because of his habit of gambling on passes and then overly compensating in the aftermath. His lack of awareness certainly plays a role in his defensive woes as he does his inability to guard men in the post with his body rather than his hands. He shows a lot of potential due to his above average lateral quickness and his size, but he will have to improve next season if he wants to get onto the NBA radar.

It is important to remember that Chism did not even average 10 points per game and he did so on less than 50% shooting from the field. He is very much a developing prospect and in the next year it is essential that he show that he is still improving and diversifying his offensive game and overall feel. Chism has some talent and potential, but he has a long way to go before maximizing his abilities. Next year, however, has to be a step in the right direction if he wants a shot at getting drafted.

#8 J.P. Prince, 6-7, Junior, PG/SG/SF, Tennessee


AP


Joey Whelan

What a long, twisting road it has been for J.P. Prince. As a senior in high school, Prince was Tennessee’s Gatorade Player of the Year, a Parade All-American and the fourth highest rated point guard in the country according to both Scout and Rivals.com. After accepting a scholarship to attend the University of Arizona, he saw action and quality minutes in 28 games. That spring though during a routine procedure to remove his wisdom teeth, Prince developed an infection that required him to be placed in an induced coma for several weeks. He would play in three games as a sophomore for Arizona before ultimately deciding to transfer to Tennessee, where he has since become a rotational member of the Vol’s backcourt, playing 18 minutes per game last season, after sitting out the first 9 games of the year.

At 6’7” and possessing great length (much like his cousin Tayshaun Prince), Prince has the size to play all three positions on the perimeter. He could stand to develop some more upper body strength as he often has his shots altered drastically by contact from defenders, but shows solid enough body control that he is still able to serve up some impressive finishes. Prince is a pretty explosive leaper, able to elevate off one or two feet and without much of a running start. Additionally, he shows good quickness for the college level, though he is slowed on the offensive end by his improvable ball-handling skills.

At this point in his career, Prince is most certainly a shoot first player. His adjusted stats have him attempting over 13 shots per game while doling out just 3.9 assists over a 40 minute span. While his field goal shooting percentage that hovers around 50% is a big plus, closer examination shows that a huge percentage of these shots come from within five feet of the basket. Prince does his damage when he is attacking the rim, and according to stats calculated by Synergy Sports Technology, only 16% of his shots come off jumpers. His first step is very strong, as he’s a crafty player who gets to the rim using a combination of hesitation and spin-moves, and does a great job of getting to the free throw line.

Too often though he will force the issue, though, attempting a tough shot or picking up an offensive foul, rather than distributing to teammates who have better shot opportunities; Prince is guilty of this most often when in transition. In all, he was only able to muster a 1.09 assist to turnover ratio, due to his tunnel vision like approach when he has the ball on the break, focusing too much on getting to the basket rather than looking to distribute. For a player billed to be a straight point guard coming out of high school, he is awfully loose with the ball and shows extremely questionable decision making skills.

As far as being a perimeter shooting threat, Prince leaves plenty to be desired. His three-point shot attempts per game have decreased each of his three seasons in college, and last year he bottomed out at a paltry 2-of-13 on the year. The lefty has an awkward form that too often looks rushed and inconsistent. Things don’t really improve as he moves in either. When he does choose to pull up and fire, Prince rarely is squared or balanced when attempting his shots. His 55.7% shooting percentage from the line only further exemplifies his struggles connecting from outside the paint.

Defensively, Prince shows a lot of promise. His lateral quickness is good and combined with his size and length, he proves to be a pesky on ball defender to say the least. He is very tough for smaller guards to shoot over, something that could certainly translate to the next level if he maintains the same intensity he did last year in increased minutes.

Prince’s rebound numbers are good at an adjusted pace, especially for a player who spends so much time on the perimeter. His biggest area for improvement is when he finds himself getting screened. Rather than trying to fight his way above or below the screen, Prince often loses his man by trying to follow through the screen, leaving him vulnerable to get beat off the dribble. He does tend to recover nicely though when opponents opt to attempt perimeter shots.

This season is really going to stand as the litmus test for Prince. With Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith having graduated, he stands as Tennessee’s top returning perimeter player. His frame has NBA guard written all over it, but the rest of his game needs to catch up. He appears to have a very intriguing upside, as he’s got great size, length and athleticism to go along with some raw point guard skills, but has clearly not made his mark on college basketball yet after all the turmoil he suffered in his first three years out of high school. It’s likely that the best is still to come, which makes this season all the more intriguing for Prince and Vols fans.

We won’t be seeing Prince jump ship any time soon unless he shows major improvements in his overall game. What is more likely is the junior putting in two more years of work and development, ultimately leaving him as a potential draft pick thanks to his size for his position and his blossoming instincts.

#9 Garrett Temple, 6-6, Senior, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, LSU


LSU Athletics


Rodger Bohn

Temple enters his senior season looking to improve his status as an NBA prospect after showing some solid ability over the last few seasons, mixed in with long stretches of disappointing play. The versatility that he brings to the table immediately offers a certain amount of intrigue, yet his limited productivity makes you ponder his value.

There is very little not to like about Temple in terms of natural physical gifts. He has outstanding size for a guard coupled with an enormous wingspan. He also has fairly smooth (although not freakish) athleticism, although his frame and overall bulk leave a lot to be desired.

The bulk of Temple's scoring comes via transition, largely in part because he is so unassertive in half-court sets. He runs the pick and roll awfully well for a big guard, making good decisions and coming off of screens close in order to exert maximum effort out of the defense. Passing is an area that he certainly excels in, producing a nice assist to turnover ratio and assist numbers fairly uncommon for someone standing 6'6.

While there are many traits that may draw you to Temple, there are equally as many traits that he could use work on. Most glaring is the fact that he is an incredibly limited offensive player, producing the second worst scoring rate of any player in our NCAA database.

It’s extremely rare to see a player average 34 minutes per game and score just 6 points in that span, shooting under 40% from the field, 30% from beyond the arc, and barely getting to the free throw line in the process. Most teams at any level of basketball just cannot afford to have a player on the court that simply is not a threat to score, and until Temple shows otherwise, that’s the only way he can currently be labeled.

Beyond being extremely passive, Temple is also incredibly left hand dominant, driving left 90 percent of the time. This is completely evident when performing advanced scouting, and makes him quite predictable to guard. His shooting mechanics are very inconsistent on top of that, releasing the ball from above his head and rarely getting a consistent release point in the process. In the rare occasion that he does get to the rim, he often lacks the strength to finish around the rim due to his poor frame.

Temple is a stud on the defensive end, however. His enormous wingspan and solid quickness allow him to get out in the passing lanes and create a ton of deflections. Able to stay in front of his man laterally, his length enables him to block a substantial number of shots for a player playing the guard position. Defensive potential is without a doubt one of the main selling points of Temple as a prospect.

Only time will tell how Trent Johnson's new system will cater towards Temple's talents. One thing for certain is that Temple will be relied upon as a catalyst for the LSU offense, needed to distribute the ball to fellow prospects Marcus Thornton and Chris Johnson. Temple may have an opportunity to show his stuff at Portsmouth after a strong senior season, but will have to show some semblance of an offensive game if he’s to draw any serious looks at the professional level.

Senario Hillman, 6-1, Sophomore, SG, Alabama


Icon SMI


Jonathan Givony

Averaging 4 points in 14 minutes definitely means you obviously aren’t ready to be considered a NBA prospect, but considering the physical tools and upside that Hillman displays, this rising sophomore might not be the worst player to glance at, at the very end of this list.

To say that Hillman is athletic is a bit of an understatement, as the good folks on YouTube can tell you. Hillman is a highlight reel waiting to happen when he enters the lane, possessing incredible explosiveness and being extremely quick off his feet on top of that. How many 6-1 guards in college basketball have a set play in their team’s half-court offense to throw them an alley-oop lob off a backdoor cut? Not many. Besides being an amazing leaper, Hillman is also extremely fast in the open floor—just a superb all-around athlete in general.

Offensively, most of Hillman’s points come either in transition or spot-up jumpers, typically from mid-range. He has decent form on his left-handed jumper, and is able to create separation from his defender quite nicely, elevating off the floor and being capable of making shots at a decent rate from about 16-18 feet. Anything past that is probably not a good shot, though, as evidenced by the 6-41 (15%) Hillman shot from beyond the college arc last season, not to mention the 50% he shot from the free throw line. Hillman is probably a slightly better shooter than those horrendous numbers indicate, but not by much at this point. He has a substantial amount of work to do on his touch and range, as well as his shot-selection, which looks quite poor at times.

Despite being an uber-athlete, Hillman is not all that effective at getting to the basket, mostly due to his poor ball-handling skills. He cannot really drive using his off-hand (right) and is not all that good with his left either at this point, having only gone to the free throw line 34 times in 32 games last year. His decision making is not good and he shows very little resembling a point guard’s mentality at this stage of his development, which is not very good considering that he’s just 6-1. Clearly he has a ton of work to do in this area.

Leaving some room for optimism is the fact that Hillman is an outstanding defender-- tough, pesky, and capable of absolutely smothering opponents with his length. His recovery speed and lateral quickness are exceptional, even if his body still needs to fill out to reach his maximum potential.

Hillman has all the makings of a three or four year college player at this point, unless he makes a Russell Westbrook-type jump in ability this upcoming season, which looks unlikely. He would be wise to be patient and fully round out his skill-set and also gain as much experience as he can before he begins to think about the NBA.

[Sbonk]

Ma ti rendi conto di quanto è lungo??
Comunque non ha nessun valore quell'articolo, non leggo Hansbrough ovunque

Comunque Vitor tu che segui sicuramente più di me com'è messa UNC quest'anno? A parte il più forte giocatore di tutti i tempi chi c'è?

[Vitor]

è lunghissimo, infatti l'ho postato senza leggerlo
ma mi servirà nei prossimi mesi e questo è un buon posto per conservarlo

UNC dovrebbe essere messa benino, alla fine son rimasti tutti quelli dell'anno scorso, compresi i 3 che avevano sondato le acque per il draft (Ellington, Green e Lawson)

[Tyus da bass]

SEC part 2

Spoiler:

#6 Chandler Parsons, 6’9, Sophomore, SF/PF, Florida


Icon SMI


Kyle Nelson

On a Florida roster filled to the brim with young talent, such as Marreese Speights and Nick Calathes, sophomore combo-forward Chandler Parsons was often overlooked in his freshman season. In a reserve role, he quietly delivered solid numbers to the tune of 8.1 ppg (47.2% FG, 32.4% 3FG, 62.7% FT), 4.0 rpg, and 1.4 apg in 20.7 minutes per game. This coming season, with Marreese Speights lost to the NBA ranks, Parsons will be relied upon to take on a more significant role in Billy Donovan’s offense.

Standing 6’9 and allegedly weighing about 213 pounds after an aggressive strength-training regimen this summer, Parsons has spectacular size for the wing and should be better equipped to play in the post. Parsons is a good athlete, looking quite mobile and fluid in his movements for a player his size. His work ethic is well documented as well as and should allow him to continue to work on his physical profile throughout his time in Gainesville.

Offensively, Parsons is a prototypical collegiate combo-forward, most known at this point for his streaky perimeter shooting. According to Synergy Sports Technology’s Statistics Database, spot-up jumpshots consisted of 35.7% of his offense. His shooting motion looks fairly good at this stage with his feet set, but his stroke loses significant accuracy when rushed or forced to pull up off the dribble. Parsons needs to work quickening the speed of his release, as his somewhat deliberate mechanics often take too long to get off. Parsons has nice touch and solid range on his perimeter shot and looks to be able to develop into a very good shooter in the future should he continue to improve on his consistency.

Elsewhere on the offensive end, Parsons is not nearly as developed. His most glaring weakness at this stage is his ball-handling ability. He dribbles the ball far too high and visibly slows down with the ball in his hands. If he could improve in this area, his offensive game looks as though it would expand significantly. He has shown the ability to get to the basket off of the dribble utilizing his solid first step, quickness, and outstanding touch around the basket, as well as flashes of a mid-range game. That being said, Parsons shows neither skill with any sort of consistency and must show such improvements during this upcoming season if he wants scouts to consider him a potential small forward at the next level. 50% of his attempts from the field currently come from beyond the arc, which tells you a bit about his mentality and polish as a slasher.

Parsons spends most of his time away from the basket, but when he decides to play in the post, he is not incredibly effective. His added bulk should help, but Parsons does not have a very advanced post arsenal outside of using his size and quickness to get around defenders to the hoop. He shows outstanding touch around the basket and does a good job positioning himself for put-backs, but expanding his post-game is another area where Parsons must improve next year, especially considering the fact that he’s one of Florida’s top returning players with any significant size.

Defensively, Parsons isn’t yet anything to write home about, but he looks to have the potential to be a solid defender in the future. Utilizing his long arms and solid lateral quickness, Parsons has the ability to guard collegiate wings. In the awareness department, Parsons has a long way to go. He gives his man too much room on the perimeter and often gives up shots because of his inability to close his man out. In the post, Parsons lacked the strength to efficiently defend his man and it remains to be seen whether or not his off-season work will positively influence his post defense, specifically his lackluster rebounding numbers.

Parsons is nowhere near a finished product and would likely be best suited staying at Florida for two to three more seasons. Like most collegiate combo-forwards, there is certainly a wait-and-see aspect in terms of Parsons’s development. If he continues to progress, however, he could emerge as one of the more interesting prospects in the SEC and cement his place as a legitimate draft contender. That being said, considering how well Billy Donovan and his staff have developed players in the past, particularly between their freshman and sophomore seasons, don’t be surprised if you hear the name Chandler Parsons more often during this coming year.

#7 Alonzo Gee, 6’6, SG/SF, Senior, Alabama


AP


Joseph Treutlein

Alonzo Gee has done a good job steadily improving his game in his three years at Alabama, and could place himself into draft discussions by continuing to do so as a senior. Gee upped his points and rebounds per game while dropping his turnovers as a junior, though the increased usage also hurt him on the efficiency end, as his FG% dropped to 42% and his 3PT% to 31%. Even worse, his overall TS% is just 50%, which is fifth worst among every senior in our entire database.

Looking at Gee’s game, as has been mentioned before, the first thing that stands out is his outstanding athleticism and build, as he’s very explosive and strong for a small forward, with a body more mature than his age. His skills still haven’t quite caught up to his physical gifts, but he’s been making progress, and he’s definitely not just an athlete.

On the offensive end, Gee’s at his best attacking the basket, using his explosive first step on straight-line drives and going up strong over the opposition. Despite not having great creativity at the rim, he makes up for it with excellent explosiveness and the ability to finish through contact or draw contact to get to the line. His dribble is still a work in progress, especially his left hand, and his dribble with either hand can look high and awkward at times, but he’s effective when he gets the right openings, quickly leaving defenders in his dust when he has a driving lane. While his crossover has developed well and doesn’t look bad, he doesn’t look very fluid when changing directions with the ball, even when just making subtle misdirection steps. Gee’s also developed a decent right-handed floater to use in the lane, and while it’s still a work in progress, it’s fairly effective already.

While Gee does a good job at the basket, converting for 1.25 points per possession on shots around the rim (data courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology), his PPP falls off to a very low 0.85 on all jump shots, which account for nearly half of his entire offense. This is one of the primary reasons his efficiency is so low at this point.

Gee doesn’t have a bad jump shot, and is actually pretty good when open, whether he’s spotting up or pulling up. In these situations, his shot is fairly consistent without many mechanical problems, the biggest minor issue being he doesn’t always fully extend his release. The problem comes when he’s guarded by defenders. Whether pulling up off the dribble or spotting up, in these situations, his shot runs into all kinds of problems. He often fades away with the ball, not getting his legs underneath him, the inconsistency of his extension becomes more severe, and he tends to rush his shooting motion in general. All of these issues contribute to his PPP on guarded jump shots being a very bad 0.56, compared to 1.16 when unguarded. The good news for Gee is that there probably won’t be many teams at the next level requiring him to take so many closely guarded jump shots, but the bad news is with Richard Hendrix gone, more of the offensive responsibility will likely fall his way, requiring him to create these shots at least as much as he did last season, if not more. If he can improve on this problem area, it would do great things for both his efficiency and his draft stock.

On the defensive end, Gee does a good job on man defense, playing aggressive and effective defense. His defensive stance is inconsistent, and arguably could even be called sloppy, as he goes in and out of fundamental stance randomly, but his foot speed is pretty good, and his length and athleticism allow him to often recover from behind when beat. He has a lot of bad habits that could become more severe problems at the next level, but he shows very good potential as an individual defender with his tools. Off the ball, he’s not quite as effective, losing focus and sagging off his man at times, while also not doing a great job fighting through screens, but once again, his athleticism and length allow him to make up for that when he rushes out to contest shots, which he does do consistently.

While Gee is still somewhat of a project player, as his skills, while developing, are largely unrefined, he’s made great strides in his time in college, and seems to be continuing to improve, with a few decent weapons already at his disposal. His potential would most likely be as a role playing defensive wing who can slash and spot up shoot, so working on those areas should be his biggest priority. Continuing to improve his ball-handling also wouldn’t hurt, but he’s still awhile away from the point where NBA teams would be asking him to use that skill consistently. Looking at the draft, he could certainly be in second round discussions, and is someone scouts will almost undoubtedly like to see in the pre-draft camps.

#8 Marcus Thornton, 6-4, Senior, Shooting Guard, LSU


LSU Athletics


Jonathan Givony

The second leading scorer in the SEC last season, and the top returning one now that Shan Foster has graduated, there is very little doubt that Marcus Thornton was able to make an immediate impact on the scoreboard for LSU right out of Kilgore Junior College. Slightly undersized at 6-4, with nice athleticism and a solid frame, Thornton clearly has the physical tools needed to make his presence felt in the SEC. Now going into his final season of collegiate eligibility, Thornton has a chance to improve his standing in the eyes of NBA types by delivering a more balanced offering individually, while also winning more games. The two are clearly correlated with each other.

There is a lot to like here in terms of pure natural ability. Averaging just a hair under 20 points per game last season, Thornton can obviously be described as a “scorer” first and foremost. Although he’s much more than just a spot-up shooter, it’s his shooting stroke that provides him with a large part of his production, as evidenced by the fact that 50% of his field goal attempts came from behind the arc.

When given a second to set his feet and get his shot off, there aren’t many players anywhere in the NCAA who are more effective than Thornton. He sets his feet and goes into his shooting motion very quickly, possessing a very fluid and natural stroke that yields great results as long as he isn’t forced to rush too much. Thornton can heat up very quickly and go off on ridiculous scoring barrages at times, as he showed in the SEC slate last season, where he eclipsed the 35 point mark on three separate occasions (going a combined 19 of 34 from behind the arc in the process).

When he is forced (or just decides) to rush, though, and especially shooting off the dribble, Thornton’s accuracy drops off dramatically, as he doesn’t get enough legs underneath his shot and typically comes up short or even doesn’t draw iron. Being such a natural scoring talent, capable of making shots with an incredibly high-degree of difficulty, he seems to want to try to convert these type of attempts every time down the floor seemingly, which lowers his percentages significantly. He ranked 13th amongst all players in our database at field goal attempts per-40 minutes pace adjusted, and 17th in field goal attempts per possession, despite not really showing the type of shooting efficiency needed to back up carrying such a large load offensively.

Thornton’s shot-selection appears to have a very long ways to go, as he takes a couple of terrible shots each game that you wouldn’t even expect to see in a junior college game. Off-balance, early in the shot clock, with a hand in his face and no one underneath the basket, it’s not hard to come to the conclusion at times that he’s playing for himself (and his stats) and no one else. There is simply no other explanation why he would take some of the shots he does.

This was a problem that plagued LSU’s entire team (a big reason they had such a bad season), but no one exemplified this problem more than him. With a new coaching staff in place coming in from a completely different type of culture than LSU has seen in recent years, it will be fascinating to see if they are able to change some of the bad habits players like Thornton have acquired. It must be said that despite his poor shot-selection, Thornton still managed to hit nearly three 3-pointers per game on a 38% clip, which is pretty impressive.

Looking beyond Thornton’s perimeter game, there seems to be room for improvement as well. Fairly quick, strong, and extremely high-energy (which all combined also makes him one of the best offensive rebounding shooting guards in the NCAA), Thornton is capable of getting to the rim and/or free throw line relatively well, and looks extremely tough finishing shots in traffic at times. He’s nothing more than an average ball-handler, though, which hurts him when trying to create his own shot and finish around the rim considering his already average size and leaping ability. By the time he gets into the paint, he often looks out of control already, which is part of the reason he averaged 50% more turnovers than assists. These are correctable flaws, though, largely a matter of polish and experience, things that Thornton is obviously lacking in currently, but can still improve on significantly.

Defensively, Thornton will make some plays from time to time (his length and strength help him in this area), but he can’t be described as being anything more than average. Besides lacking an inch or two compared to the prototypical NBA shooting guard, he also lacks intensity and awareness on this end too. This shows up most in his ability to defend the pick and roll, as he regularly gets buried behind screens and doesn’t put much of an effort into knowing where he is supposed to be on the floor. This again seemed to be a problem with LSU as a whole, so it will be interesting to see how things look this upcoming season under a new coaching regime. If Thornton can show that he can be relied upon to defend his position at the next level, his chances of making it will improve substantially, so this is something he must work seriously on over the next year.

All in all, Thornton is going to get extended looks this fall and spring from the NBA, as there just aren’t that many players in college basketball with his natural scoring ability, even if his flaws are quite obvious. There are a number of adjustments he needs to make to his game, mostly in terms of his mentality and overall approach, but also by rounding out his all-around skill-set. He has the potential to make an NBA team, or even get drafted possibly (if Joe Crawford can, then he surely can too), but a lot of that will come down to the type of season he has at LSU, and how he performs during the pre-draft process.

#9 Chris Johnson, 6-11, Senior, PF/C, LSU


LSU Athletics


Kyle Nelson

As you can read by following the link to his profile, we wrote extensively about LSU’s 6’11, 190 pound power forward Chris Johnson at the end of last season. He is an interesting prospect in the deep and talented SEC because of his size, athleticism, and versatility, but he is still very much a developing player who has yet to reach his full potential. Last year, the 23 year old senior had the opportunity to play more minutes than ever in his career and responded with career highs of 11.6 ppg (52.5% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 85.2% FT), 6.6 rpg, and 2.6 bpg. This season, however, more progress is expected from Johnson, and if he wants to remain wants to remain relevant in the mind of NBA scouts, it will be essential that he delivers.

First, Johnson will have to improve some of his glaring weaknesses. While there is likely little hope of correcting his extremely slight frame, Johnson must work to show that he can man the post at least part-time at the collegiate level. He has shown promise with his footwork and very nice quickness and leaping ability in the paint, but his lack of bulk makes it extremely difficult for him to post up and keep his position. Lacking the lateral quickness to play on the perimeter at the next level, it’s going to be essential for Johnson to show improvements dealing with contact on the interior.

Similarly, Johnson is going to have to continue to work on his raw perimeter skills. His jump-shot, one of the principal weapons in his offensive arsenal is extremely hit or miss at this point. First and foremost, it is necessary for him to develop a consistent shooting motion. Then, he should work to remove excess motion, specifically kicking his legs out and falling away from the basket from his shot. Thanks to his length and his extremely high release point, his jump-shot could be incredibly difficult to defend if he can improve.

Last season, Johnson showed tantalizing offensive potential on occasions, sometimes creating his own shot from mid-range or other times driving to the basket from the perimeter and in transition. Though these are by no means staples in his offensive repertoire, he should look to continue to expand his offense next season and prove to scouts that he is not just another spot-up-shooting big man.

Defensively, Johnson will have to prove that he has a position. He had trouble staying in front of perimeter players, and in the post he lacked the strength to be very effective against back-to-the-basket big men.

The odds are somewhat against Johnson, as at the end of the day he is a 6’11, 190 pound face-up power forward with a developing skill-set that oftentimes does not involve post play. If he can prove, however, that he is still improving and should he have a good senior season, then there is a chance that somebody will give him a serious look on draft night.

#10 Tasmin Mitchell, 6'7, Redshirt Junior, Small Forward, LSU


Icon SMI


Rodger Bohn

Tasmin Mitchell looks to rebound this year after suffering a horrendous ankle injury as a sophomore just three games into his season. It appears as if he will be granted a medical redshirt, leaving him two years to show his stuff to NBA brass. The departure of Anthony Randolph to the NBA and de-commitment of current UCLA big man J'Mison Morgan has opened up plenty of opportunity for Mitchell to put points on the board this year for the Tigers.

Standing 6'7 and weighing a legit 235 pounds, Mitchell fits the ideal mold physically of a power wing. He is incredibly strong and uses his strength to his maximum advantage, making up for some of the deficiencies that he has. He is not blessed with an outstanding wingspan, nor is he overly athletic, but he uses his cerebral style of play and high basketball IQ to overcome his athletic shortcomings.

Mitchell appears to be an absolute coach's dream as far as intangibles are concerned. He is a vocal leader who plays every minute on the court as if it were his last, diving on the ball for loose balls and constantly hustling for rebounds out of his area. Blessed with a high basketball IQ, Tasmin seems to have a knowledge of the game that is uncommon amongst most players his age.

Offensively, Mitchell puts points on the board in a variety of ways. He shows a strong dribble drive when going towards his right, finishing well around the rim with either hand. The Louisiana native is also strong enough to post smaller defenders, and even shot the ball with 37.6 accuracy from beyond the arc. A strong mid-range jumper was also shown, giving him a nice arsenal of skills for a player looking to show scouts that he can transition from the power forward position. He also scores a nice amount of points through simply being at the right place at the right time, seemingly always flashing in the proper areas of the defense to free himself up for open looks.

Passing the ball is one area that Tasmin has shown nice promise, primarily due to his high basketball IQ. Not a guy who is going to completely collapse a defense, he does a good job of finding open shooters when he is cut off en route to the rim.

Ball-handling is an area of concern for Mitchell, especially going left. He drove left only 25.81% of the time as a sophomore, looking increasingly uncomfortable when doing so. Even when going right, the former McDonald's All-American shows off a high handle that can be quite erratic at times.

While Mitchell has improved mightily shooting the ball, he could still use some serious polish before he will be considered a threat from beyond the arc at the next level. His mechanics can be a bit wild at times and his shot is a bit slow, with most of his made three pointers being when he was left completely open. These are areas that can be fixed with proper skill training and development, but should be identified before he makes the jump to the NBA.

There is little not to like about Tasmin on the defensive end, though. He is strong enough to guard power forwards and quick enough to guard wings, making him incredibly versatile. Mitchell is able to corral a nice amount of steals without over gambling, and is also a strong rebounder for a small forward, bringing in about 6 rebounds per game.

This season will be crucial for Mitchell to prove that he is able to live up to the acclaim that he had as a prep star, ranked 10th in the class of 2005 according to the RSCI. A strong season will help put Mitchell back on the NBA radar, and it appears that he could very well be in line to do that under new LSU coach Trent Johnson, who will probably value his all-around skill-set dearly.

non vedo come un essere che si chiama "Turtlein" possa essere un buon giocatore di pallacanestro

[Cily]

ma mi servirà nei prossimi mesi e questo è un buon posto per conservarlo

Sicuro, tra un down di 12 ore e l'altro
Ah, non ho minimamente intenzione di leggere quei papiri
Ma quest'anno va tutto su NASN?

[Vitor]

PAC-10 part 1

Spoiler:

#1 James Harden, 6’5, Shooting Guard, Sophomore, Arizona State


Icon SMI


Joseph Treutlein

While the amount of media attention he got may not have matched the likes of Kevin Love or O.J. Mayo last season, James Harden sure made a comparable first-year resume, becoming Arizona State’s go-to player and leading scorer practically as soon as the season started, and earning All-Pac-10 First Team honors for it. Harden didn’t just score 17.8 points per game; he did it very efficiently, shooting 53% from the field and 41% from three, while putting up a very strong 63% TS%.

Someone we covered twice during the 2007-08 season, there really isn’t much new to say about Harden since we last spoke of him in January. The biggest thing to take note of is how his level of play didn’t fall off against conference competition, as he showed little trouble consistently performing against the tougher foes night in and night out. We also noticed at the adidas Nations tournament in Dallas that he appears to have improved his physique over the summer, standing a solid 6-5 with a very sturdy and now slimmer frame.

As has been mentioned before, not being the greatest athlete in the world, Harden’s exceptional play level is due mostly to his fundamentals and excellent know-how on the court. Not a flashy ball-handler, Harden is very controlled with the ball, and rarely will use many highly advanced moves other than his effective crossover.

That’s not to say he’s a straight-line dribbler at all, though, as he constantly uses excellent craftiness to adjust with the ball in the lane, utilizing jump stops, stop-and-pivot moves, misdirection steps, and hesitation dribbles to change directions in the lane, getting his defender off balance and weaving his way to high percentage shot attempts. He’s definitely capable of making more adjustments when using his dominant left dribble, but still does a good job on right-handed drives.

Around the basket, Harden’s level of craftiness continues to impress, as he goes to a variety of floaters, finger rolls, and lay-ups to get the job done, making good use of the openings the defense provides for him. It’s very impressive he’s able to finish with such effectiveness around the rim despite rarely using his right hand or using explosive strength to score with power.

As a jump shooter, Harden is very effective spotting up, with range to the NBA three-point line, but his effectiveness falls off when pulling up, as he lacks a certain degree of fluidity or comfort when transitioning from dribble to shot with a defender on him. He has a tendency to fade away on these pull-up shots from deep, and his accuracy is not very good when pulling up from mid-range. Improving this ripple of his game, while making him more of a threat from the mid-range, would make him that much more dangerous a player.

For all his scoring prowess, and partially due to the system he plays in, it’s easy to overlook his phenomenal passing game. He clearly excels there as well, showing the same terrific understanding of the game in this area and frequently creating good shot attempts for teammates. Not flashy in this segment of his game either, Harden does most of his damage on quick, simple drive-and-kicks or good post entry/pick-and-roll passes.

His excellent fundamentals and basketball IQ really stand out when you consider that he was one of the youngest players in all of college basketball last season, having only turned 19 a month ago. In Dallas at the adidas Nations tournament, he arrived a day later than most but wasted no time at all asserting his will against anyone he matched up with, largely with his ability to create both for himself and especially for others.

It’s tough to get a great feel for Harden on the defensive end, as he is rarely put in isolation situations in ASU’s zone defense, but on the few we saw over the course of the year, his lateral quickness seemed adequate, as did his reflexes and instincts. As a team defender, Harden is very strong, as he uses his length and hands to constantly disrupt the opposing team’s offense, making 2.1 steals per game and contesting many outside shots.

With the 2009 draft class not looking very deep in elite talent, Harden looks like he’s going to be in a great situation come June, as if he picks up where he left off as a freshman, and makes a few improvements to his game, he could easily see himself in discussions for the lottery. He’s not your typical lottery shooting guard prospect due to his just adequate athleticism and a style that doesn’t net him nearly any highlight reel plays, but with his build, length, and excellent feel for the game, if he can improve on last season’s performance, he’ll definitely be someone scouts and executives will be talking about.

#2 Jordan Hill, 6-9, Junior, Power Forward, Arizona


Icon SMI


Jonathan Givony

Still largely flying underneath the radar as far as the national media is concerned, this could very well be the year that Jordan Hill emerges as a college basketball star, in this, his junior season. We saw the potential in him last summer despite only averaging 4.7 points per game as a freshman, causing us to name him one of the top five returning NBA draft prospects in the loaded Pac-10.

He backed that up by upping his scoring to over 13 points per game in 29 minutes, shooting a scintillating 62% from the field (tops amongst all players on our 2009 mock draft) , while pulling down an excellent 11.1 rebounds per-40 minutes (4th in our 09 mock), and improving his free throw percentage by an astounding 24%, to bring him to a much more respectable 68% from the charity stripe. He also passed the ball considerably better, while still maintaining his solid 2.3 blocks per-40 averages, although his turnover rate increased and he still struggled at times with foul trouble.

All in all, there is no question that Hill did an excellent job showing that he is more than just an excellent prospect—he was extremely productive for Arizona. A late bloomer who hasn’t been playing organized basketball as long as most, he obviously still has quite a bit of room to grow as a player.

Despite standing somewhere around 6-9 and being somewhat skinny, Hill was used mostly as a back to basket inside threat for Arizona last year. His repertoire is mostly limited here to posting up on the left block and spinning to his left shoulder for a very effective right-handed jump-hook shot. He is quick enough to get this shot fairly easy against the average college defender, although he seemed to struggle when trying to use this move against bigger, stronger and more athletic big men—the type he’ll see much more frequently in the NBA.

Hill is a bit predictable offensively at times, he has a tendency to spin right into double teams and isn’t great when forced to improvise or go out of his comfort zone. His post moves and footwork in general looks a bit unpolished, and he’s not what you would call a great passer either, struggling to see anything besides the rim once he makes up his mind regarding what he wants to do, and not always reading the floor particularly well. His left hand is virtually non-existent in the post, and most smart defenders know that, making him fairly easy to neutralize with effective advanced scouting. Expanding his repertoire of post moves could do wonders for his production.

What Hill is excellent at is finishing around the basket, to the tune of making 71% of his attempts around the rim according to Synergy Sports Technology’s quantified report. His terrific hands make him a great target in the paint for his guards to drop off passes to (typically off a pick and roll), and he does an excellent job rising up above the defense and finishing with authority. If unable to finish the play with a dunk, he seems to have the touch and wherewithal to use the glass fairly well too, which leaves a lot of room for optimism. Hill also gets a few baskets every game simply by crashing the offensive glass or running the floor, which helps keep his field goal percentages sky-high.

It’s no fluke that Hill’s free throw percentages went from 44% to 68% between his freshman and sophomore seasons—his shooting range expanded dramatically in that time as well. Hill has solid mechanics from 16-18 feet and nice touch as well from this range. He isn’t incredibly consistent at this point, but this is a part of his game that shows a lot of potential, and he should clearly continue to work to improve on.

Although not a great ball-handler, Hill’s first step is absolutely terrific, allowing him to leave most opposing big men in the dust if he can get an initial step on them. This is yet another part of his game that he can build off in the future, although it’s not really a consistent part of his repertoire just yet.

A pretty poor defender due to his average awareness and fundamentals, it’s on this end of the floor that Hill looks furthest away from competing at the NBA level just yet. His lack of experience really gets exposed, as he does not do a good job at all of hedging screens or staying in front of his man on the perimeter or inside the paint. He uses his hands excessively and is fairly foul prone in turn, the reason why he wasn’t always able to stay on the court in some stretches when his team needed him. Gaining strength looks like a major priority for him here, but his nice length and athleticism already allows him to establish himself as somewhat of a shot-blocking threat, as well as an excellent rebounder.

Clearly a superior athlete with a skill-set that is rapidly improving and an aggressive mentality that bodes very well for his future development, Hill is certainly someone to keep an eye on this upcoming season, as it’s quite possible that he breaks out and has a spectacular year. He’s nowhere near a finished product at this point, but that’s part of the reason he’s so interesting, as most of his flaws look highly correctable, and his strengths are the type that can’t be taught. The next step is to become much more consistent from game to game and improve on his polish and all-around feel for the game.

#3 Chase Budinger, 6-7, Junior, SG/SF, Arizona


AP


Kyle Nelson

We’ve already written extensively about Chase Budinger, but as one of the PAC-10’s better, if not its best, NBA prospect, all eyes will be on the Arizona junior next year. Last season, Budinger’s role increased to the tune of 23% of his team’s possessions, and he responded by increasing his scoring average to 17.1 ppg, albeit on less efficient shooting from the field. The difference, however, between freshman and sophomore Budinger, however, was fairly pronounced, especially by the end of the season: Budinger showed the potential to develop into the first option that he was expected to be since the first day he stepped onto campus. This year, likely his last in Tucson, he must prove to scouts that he can amount to more than merely a role-player in the NBA. Becoming an elite college scorer on a depth-depleted team isn’t a bad place to start.

Physically, Budinger has a lot of athletic tools to work with, namely his explosiveness and 40-plus inch vertical jump. While he does not move incredibly well laterally, must gain more strength and possesses an average first step, it is hard to ignore a 6’7 guard with a solid basketball IQ who is a highlight reel waiting to happen in the open court. At the collegiate level, he is a tremendous mismatch on the perimeter, and should be able to translate that into dominance next season.

On the offensive end last year, Budinger became more assertive as the season went on, showing an improved offensive repertoire. His shooting stroke, particularly from the perimeter, looked much better. He showed the same quick release and good elevation, but his form looked more fluid, and he showed the ability to knock down shots off of the dribble as well as while spotting up. Moving inwards, he does a good job of scoring in a majority of ways, mostly due to his ability to use the backboard and his solid body control. One area in which Budinger should look to improve next season is his ball-handling ability. He is competent now, but he could increase his offensive versatility, particularly his mid-range game and quickness with the ball in hands if he were to improve this part of his game. Also, at times last season, he was overambitious with the ball, costing his team bad turnovers. He will likely be a second offensive facilitator from the wing next season, and it is essential that he play within his strengths and not try to force the issue.

Defensively, Budinger is still quite lacking. Despite his athleticism, size, and length, his lateral quickness is poor, which does not allow him to be a very effective perimeter defender at this stage. Likewise, his defensive awareness is not great either, failing to close out his man on the perimeter, not running above screens, and not looking focused for stretches of games. Considering his basketball IQ and athleticism, Budinger should be able to develop into a decent defender in the future, but it is up to him to show scouts that he will not be a liability at the next level.

Budinger is almost a lock to declare for the NBA Draft after next season and should be in good shape as far as the first round is concerned. Right now, he is being viewed as a role-player at the next level, but scouting Budinger only reveals how much more potential he still has left to realize. Should he continue to expand his game and emerge as one of the top scorers in the NCAA, don’t be surprised to see him projected higher come March. Much of that for him is mental, and we’ll plenty about that this upcoming season.

#4 Darren Collison, 6-1, Senior, Point Guard, UCLA


AP


Joey Whelan

Even with a stellar recruiting class that includes blue chip point guard Jrue Holiday, UCLA coach Ben Howland has to be thrilled with the return of Darren Collison for his senior year. The California native can lay claim to being the best returning college floor general in the country, and will be all over pre season All-American lists.

The biggest knock against Collison throughout his career has been his size. Generously listed at 6’1” and 165 pounds, he is undersized even by college standards. Early off season reports have said that Collison has added a little weight and gotten stronger, although apparently it isn’t very visibly noticeable. While he will always be criticized for his smaller stature, his speed and smarts make him a constant threat on both ends of the floor. There are few players at the college level who are as poised in the open floor with the basketball as Collison is.

Collison was a very efficient scorer last season, averaging 14.5 points on 48.1% shooting, but as the only returning player to average double figures, he will likely need to step his scoring numbers up this season. His ball-handling skills are outstanding and he has a great understanding of how to break defenders down in isolation situations or using screens. Towards the end of last season he really came on in his mid-range game, able to pull up on a dime or knock down tough runners on taller opponents. Collison was a tremendous threat from beyond the arc, connecting on an absurd 52.5% of his shot attempts from the outside, though the sample size still leaves something to be desired. Despite being one of the most deadly outside shooters around, Collison only attempted 3 shots per game from the perimeter and almost never if he was contested at all.

Certainly Collison’s intangibles need to be considered when discussing him as well. He has shown a real knack for hitting big shots in his time at UCLA, making him a real asset as a backcourt leader. He has a strong skill set for a point guard, and reports are saying over the summer he has improved his ability to anticipate where teammates will be on the floor. He is an absolute nuisance as a one-on-one defender, using his speed and quick hands to emerge as a steals leader in the Pac-10.

Despite his physical stature, which will always give pro scouts pause, there are quite a few reasons to be high on Collison. Everything about his game, particularly the fact that he does everything against top notch competition, says that he could be on his way to a solid NBA career if he gets the necessary time to develop. He appears to be a solid first round prospect, although there are still some question marks regarding whether he projects as a backup or as a starter.

#5 Jeff Pendergraph, 6’9, Power Forward, Senior, Arizona State


AP


Rodger Bohn

Pendergraph has been on the NBA radar now for several years, gradually progressing during each of his three seasons in Tempe. He is a player who certainly had the opportunity to test the waters last season as a junior, but opted to focus on his development at Arizona State instead.

Much has been written already about Pendergraph’s physical gifts and there is little not to like. He has nice size and length for a power forward, to go with a frame capable of putting on size and solid athleticism. The senior can certainly pass the look test of a power forward prospect as far as the NBA is concerned.

Pendergraph’s offensive game is still more of that of a traditional back to the basket player, rather than that of today’s hybrid power forward. He favors turning towards his left shoulder the majority of the time, showing off a good right hand jump hook with soft touch and nice extension. Pendergraph is still incredibly raw going towards his right shoulder, tending to put up an uncomfortable looking left hand hook shot. Either way, he is an incredibly efficient player in the post, as seen by his 59% field goal percentages.

There has been some nice improvement in the California native’s face-up game, however. He appears to be much more comfortable facing the basket, capable of drilling a quick release jumper out to about 14 feet. Pendergraph will obviously have to extend his range if he hopes to play the four position full time in the NBA, but his progress in this area leaves some room for optimism.

Obviously there are still some major holes in Pendergraph’s game offensively. He is more of a center then a power forward at the moment and still isn’t very comfortable putting the ball on the floor. Pendergraph also doesn’t read the double team exceptionally well (something he will be facing quite a bit this year), and could use some improvement in terms of finding the open man.

Arizona State’s tendency to run zone defense makes it hard for players to box out and often allows a number of offensive rebounds, which might explain why ASU was the second worst rebounding squad in the conference. Pendergraph was worse on the boards this season (11.9 per-40 as a sophomore, compared to 9.7 as a junior), but things were a little more difficult for him given the lackluster job Sun Devil guards did of boxing out.

Given ASU’s desire to run zone, there were few situations to evaluate Pendergraph’s actual man-to-man defense. In the few instances we did see, we were able to gather that he is a tough defender on the low blocks who does a very nice job of holding his own position. Pendergraph did a good job of rotating and displayed decent timing in terms of blocking shots. Overall, he appears to be a very solid defender from what we have seen.

Currently projected as a second round pick, Pendergraph is a player who has a chance to earn a spot in the first round with a strong senior season. He will surely have the chance to play at the NBA pre-Draft Camp if he desires to do so at the conclusion of the season. The rate of development throughout his senior campaign as well as the success his team finds will determine how attractive of a prospect he is deemed to be come June.