Hanno fatto gli stress test senza considerare l'ipotesi di una nazione europea che vada a gambe per aria.
Tanto valeva non farli visto che almeno un paio di default ci saranno
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Hanno fatto gli stress test senza considerare l'ipotesi di una nazione europea che vada a gambe per aria.
Tanto valeva non farli visto che almeno un paio di default ci saranno
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/22/bu.../22fed.html?hp
Bernanke parla di ripresa lenta per gli USA e Wall Street scende subito.
Come al solito dose di zucchero abbondante con la goccia di medicina.
Sta ovviamente spianando la strada per buttare ancora piu' benzina sul fuoco (leggi: stampare piu' soldi).
A me questi post-Keynesians fanno un po' paura (Krugman, Wolf e compagnia bella).
ho scritto qualcosa sul soggetto, se avete voglia di annoiarvi a morte.
Io sono ignorante, ma perchè questi post-keynesiani pensano che stampare moneta possa risolvere i problemi?
Mi viene da pensare che forse nel breve periodo queste politiche possano avere qualche effetto (perchè i prezzi/stipendi non si adattano subito) ma nel lungo non dovrebbero essere operazioni completamente prive di effetto?
In realtà nel lungo sono pure deleterie.
per esempio. Poi c'e' il piccolo problema della domanda portata avanti. In pratica, piu' stimoli, piu' anticipi consumi e produzioni del futuro. In teoria la cosa dovrebbe essere elastica, ma nessun politico nella storia ha mai accettato di lasciar ritirare l'elastico per ovvi motivi.
Rilancio con
"In the long run we are all dead" (J.M. Keynes) :asd:
Banche, stress test: promosse tutte le italiane Male la Spagna: bocciate 5 casse di risparmio
MILANO - Tutti e cinque i maggiori istituti di credito italiani - Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Ubi Banca e Banco Popolare - hanno superato gli stress test, ovvero le analisi del loro grado di capitalizzazione da parte delle autorità di vigilanza. Lo si apprende dai comunicati diffusi dalle banche. Si tratta di una notizia positiva dopo quelle allarmanti legate agli istituti spagnoli, che in buona parte hanno fallito la prova creando conseguenze anche a livello di mercati finanziari.
PROMOSSI E BOCCIATI - Complessivamente sono state sette, tra le 91 sotto esame, quelle che non hanno superato le analisi predisposte dalle autorità di vivilanza . Hypo Real Estate è l'unica banca tedesca a non avere passato gli stress test. La Banca di Francia ha reso noto che Bnp Paribas, SocGen, Credit Agricole e Bpce hanno superato i test. In Spagna, la prova non è stata superata dalla casse di risparmio Diada, Espiga, Unnim, Banca Civica e Cajasur. Le due banche irlandesi sotto esame, Allied Irish Banks e Bank of Ireland, hanno passato i test. Tutti gli istituti portoghesi hanno superato la prova, mentre in Grecia è stata bocciata Atebank .
LE PERFORMANCE ITALIANE - Tornando alle performance dei gruppi bancari italiani, considerata al 6% la soglia minima del Tier 1 (rapporto tra capitali propri e attività totali) come condizione necessaria per il superamento dei test, questi sono i risultati delle banche tricolori al 2011, a seguito delle analisi effettuate su eventuali shock negativi: Monte dei Paschi al 6,2%, Unicredit 7,8%, Intesa San Paolo 8,2%, Banco Popolare 7%, Ubi Banca 6,8%
IL RATING DELL'UNGHERIA - Nel frattempo, Moody's ha minacciato di declassare il rating Baa1 dell'Ungheria. Inoltre l'agenzia ha posto sotto osservazione, sempre per eventuali tagli, anche i rating sulla Banca di Ungheria e sui depositi bancari in valuta estera. La decisione riflette il clima di crescente incertezza sulle prospettive di finanziamento dopo l'interruzione dei colloqui con Fondo monetario internazionale e Unione europea. Le dichiarazioni di Moody's hanno portato a un calo di oltre lo 0,8% del fiorino ungherese sull'euro.
LE BORSE - Le Borse europee chiudono contrastate: a Londra il Ftse100 si ferma a -0,08%. Positive invece Francoforte (Dax +0,46%) e Parigi (Cac +0,31%). A Milano la settimana si conclude in rosso: Ftse It All -0,39%, Ftse Mib -0,44%. L'Asia invece ha chiuso in deciso rialzo. Tokyo è salita del 2,3%, Hong Kong dell'1,1% mentre l'indice Msci, principale indicatore per i listini dell'area, avanza dell'1,4%.
TRICHET: AUMENTARE LE TASSE - Il presidente della Bce, Jean-Claude Trichet, in un'intervista al Financial Times ha sostenuto che, con l'economia europea in ripresa, i Paesi industrializzati dovrebbero procedere immediatamente a un taglio della spesa pubblica e a un aumento delle tasse. «Ora è il momento della sostenibilità fiscale», ha detto Trichet.
Articolo-Doom del solito Ambrose-Evans.
Dal Telegraph
La frase e': "and a default is a distinct possibility".Citazione:
Italy trapped in slow lane as political crisis deepens
July car sales have plummeted in Italy, compounding the country’s woes as political crisis threatens months of wrangling and fresh concerns about the safety of Italian debt.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 9:13PM BST 02 Aug 2010
64 Comments
Previous1 of 3 ImagesNext Italy's finance minister, Giulio Tremonti, is generally well regarded for his handling of a struggling Italian economy.
Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi, flanked by ministers in the Italian Parliament last week, has tried to talk up the economy's prospects.
Fiat 's Sergio Marchionne has serious problems in his own backyard.
Rome said new registrations dropped 26pc from a year earlier, led by a 36pc fall for Fiat. "It is a complete disaster for everybody. The prime minister needs to take charge," said Filippo Pavan Bernacchi, head of the trade lobby Federauto.
Fiat’s chief executive Sergio Marchionne said Italy is the only part of the world where the resurgent company has not made a profit over the last eighteen months. "Italy’s industrial network cannot compete as it is," he said.
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Europe's €30 trillion headache
Swiss endure safe-haven agony from euro flight Mr Marchionne is embroiled in a showdown with Italy’s trade unions, demanding a radical overhaul of working practices before agreeing to fresh investment. "We want to run the plants. There is nothing obscene about that, but here in Italy it seems like we are asking for the moon," he said.
Italy has weathered the crisis of the last three years in good shape, thanks to modest private debt and the firm hand of finance minister Giulio Tremonti.
However, political risk is rising as the ruling party of premier Silvio Berlusconi breaks apart over claims of corruption, masonic conspiracies, wire-tap abuses, and attempts to interfere with the courts and free speech. Mr Berlusconi’s attempts to silence his erstwhile ally and chief critic Ginafranco Fini have back-fired badly, leading to revolt that has stripped the government of its parliamentary majority.
This has not had a discernable effect on Italian bond yields but the global markets have shown a tendency over the last three years to rotate from one country to another with sudden bursts of angst over sovereign debt.
"I really do think people have been closing their eyes to what may happen in Europe," said Simon Derrick from Bank of New York Mellon.
"Our custodial flow data for July shows a steady selling of Italian debt by foreign investors. The last thing anybody wants at this point is political uncertainty," he said.
Car sales fell 24pc in Spain and 13pc in France as scrappage schemes are phased out and consumers brace for austerity. The contours of a two-speed recovery in the eurozone are becoming clearer, with Club Med lagging far behind a turbo-charged Germany.
Germany’s KfW-IFO confidence index for Mittelstand firms has surged to 21.1, the highest since reunification in 1991. "There is now a property mini-boom in cities such as Dusseldorf, Munich, and Berlin: people are buying like mad," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
As widely predicted, Europe’s scrappage schemes "cannibalised" future sales, leading to a cliff-edge effect that now weighs on economic recovery.
"We think Europe’s economy will start rolling over again as we move into September and October, and may even contract in the fourth quarter," said David Owen from Jefferies Fixed Income.
"The boost from the inventory cycle is largely behind us and the eurozone needs a much weaker exchange rate-- perhaps $1.10 against the dollar," he said.
Ominously, Ireland said its budget deficit would reach 18.7pc of GDP this year despite wage cuts and 1930s-style austerity policies. While this is partly due to rescue costs for the banks, it is reminder that fiscal retrenchment can itself prove self-defeating unless there is offsetting stimulus from a weaker currency, or looser money, or both.
Italy has so far decoupled from the so-called PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) despite a public debt 117pc of GDP, the third largest in the world in absolute terms after Japan and US. French banks alone have $476bn of exposure to Italian debt, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Investors have switched their focus to Italy’s combined levels of private and public debt. By this measure, it looks almost frugal. The country’s old-fashioned banks have proved reasonably solid. The budget deficit will be 5pc of GDP this year, much lower than France, Spain, Britain or the US. Exactly how Rome has achieved this even though the economy contracted by 5pc during the recession -- more than those four countries -- remains one of the mysteries of this crisis.
However, Italy is clearly trapped with an overvalued exchange rate within EMU. It has lost 30pc in unit labour cost competitiveness against Germany since the exchange rates were fixed in perpetuity in the mid-1990s. This will be extremely hard to claw back without going through the pain of wage deflation. The risk is perma-slump along the lines of Japan.
Ben May from Capital Economics said dismal growth will make it much harder to break out of the debt cycle. "Once interest rates go up again, the debt could start to explode. We think the size of the government’s debts will eventually prompt the markets to turn their sights on Italy and a default is a distinct possibility," he said.
The EU authorities and the International Monetary Fund will go to great lengths to avoid such an outcome. We can be sure that they are watching the unfolding the political drama in Rome with close attention.
Il mercato dell' auto va avanti a incentivi, ed e' ovvio che ci siano sobbalzi. E' il resto dell'economia a non convincermi. Vedo villette in vendita a Sondrio per 800,000€, e mi chiedo, " ma chi cazzo ha 800,000 da spendere per una villetta che sara' costata 30,000 al costruttore?"
A quando lo showdown?
Crescita più forte: il Pil è all'1,1%
La ripresa economica si va consolidando anche in Italia e per il secondo trimestre consecutivo il Pil fa registrare un incremento dello 0,4% rispetto al trimestre precedente. Non solo: secondo la stima preliminare diffusa ieri dall'Istat (per avere i dati definitivi occorrerà attendere il 10 settembre) l'aumento del prodotto interno lordo tra aprile e giugno 2010 rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2009 è stato pari all'1,1 per cento: per l'attività produttiva in Italia si tratta dell'incremento tendenziale più forte dal terzo trimestre del 2007 ed è una crescita dovuta essenzialmente al contributo positivo dell'industria e dei servizi (il valore aggiunto dell'agricoltura è invece diminuito tra aprile e giugno).
A questo punto, ha spiegato ancora l'Istituto nazionale di statistica, la crescita acquisita per l'anno in corso, vale a dire l'incremento di prodotto che si avrà comunque, anche se nei prossimi sei mesi la crescita fosse nulla, è pari allo 0,8 per cento.
Nel mese di luglio 2010 si è registrato un avanzo del settore statale pari, in via provvisoria, a circa 2.700 milioni, con un miglioramento di circa 6.300 milioni rispetto al fabbisogno registrato nel mese di luglio del 2009, pari a 3.659 milioni.
Nei primi sette mesi del 2010 si è registrato complessivamente un fabbisogno di circa 43.100 milioni, inferiore di circa 10.500 milioni a quello dell'analogo periodo del 2009 pari a 53.674 milioni.
http://www.tesoro.it/ufficio-stampa/...ati/?idc=24978
Continua la ripresa economica, trainata dall'export e nonostante gli stagnanti consumi interni. E migliorano anche i conti pubblici, segno che si sta finalmente tirando la cinghia limitando le spese, come non si faceva da anni.
Proseguirà il trend positivo? La cura di contenimento spese del Governo Berlusconi comincia a dar i suoi effetti?
A occhio direi proprio che la risposta è no a entrambe
Pessimi dati dall'economia americana, aumentano ancora i disoccupati e cala la produzione industriale
http://www.dailyfinance.com/market-news/
Le borse vanno ancora pesantemente in rosso.
Che gli stati uniti siano avviati verso una nuova recessione?
La grecia se vende un centinaio di isolette è a posto :asd:
CVD
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb...ca1fa.html?x=0
Citazione:
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will have little option but to keep flooding the money market with cash to aid banks and governments in the common currency area's troubled southern periphery, despite robust growth in the core.
Southern Europe has been hit hard on several fronts recently. First the sovereign debt crisis hit Greece and other southern periphery countries, then bank stress tests showed 6 out of 7 failing banks were in Spain or Greece, and then the region posted only tepid growth while most of the euro zone was humming along nicely, all weakening confidence in banks.
Bank borrowing from the ECB shows increasing strains in southern euro-zone's financial sector while banks elsewhere are getting back on their feet, but the fear of contagion from country to country will keep the ECB on its toes.
Total use of ECB funds has dipped in recent months, but southern periphery banks rely on the ECB in the face of continued reluctance among peers to lend.
Analysts said this would reinforce the argument for the ECB to extend its unlimited cash offers into next year -- an outcome looking increasingly likely after Germany's Axel Weber joined other policymakers in backing an extension on Friday.
Banks in Greece borrowed twice as much last month as they did in July 2009, even though outstanding central bank lending fell 18 percent over the same time. Banks in Portugal borrowed five times as much in July 2010 as they did a year earlier, and borrowing also rose in Spain and Italy.
"The full-allotment fixed-rate repos will stay well into next year," said Michala Marcussen, Societe General chief economist.
"Beyond the first quarter of next year, the overall economic environment will be the key determinant in how much longer it gets carried. In all likelihood it could get carried further ahead."
STRESSED
The ECB introduced unlimited fixed-rate loans in October 2008 and has promised to keep them in place in the shorter-term, one week and one month operations until at least mid-October, and until the end of September for three-month money. Fourth-quarter plans are due to be revealed in September.
The ECB tried to reintroduce limits to borrowing in April but was forced into a U-turn by the sovereign debt crisis, returning to its full allotment policy in May.
Cyprus's Athanasios Orphanides and Ireland's Patrick Honohan have indicated the unlimited funding should continue. But Weber made clear exit discussions should not resume until early next year and his dovish tone got analysts' attention.
"The key message is that the ECB is willing to stay there as long as it has to and that it believes that it needs to be present and keep those full allotments," Marcussen said.
There were great hopes that last month's bank stress tests, the latest salvo in the battle to improve confidence, would calm the market but their impact is already waning after muted positive signals at first.
"There has to be increased confidence of health or the perceived health of the banking system (for phasing out crisis measures)," said RBS (LSE: RBS.L - news) economist Nick Matthews.
"The stress tests were an opportunity to do that, but it does seem as though some of the positive results seem to be wearing off, so maybe these stress tests were a missed opportunity."
Only seven of the 91 banks tested failed, and some analysts thought the scenarios were too lenient.
PREVENTING SPILLOVER
The euro zone is seeing an increasing split not only in banking, but in the economy as a whole, further complicating the ECB's task. While the euro-zone economy boomed in the second quarter with Germany setting the tone, southern Europe recorded much more muted growth.
The ECB stresses consistently its policy takes into account the whole of the euro zone, not individual countries.
"I think it is a challenge that we had to face permanently since the very beginning of the euro," Trichet said earlier this month, brushing off concerns that uneven economic development was an especially pressing problem right now.
But neglecting banks' difficulties even in relatively small countries would exacerbate the economic split and threaten to get the south mired in a credit crunch.
Moreover, the Greek debt crisis showed that developments in one small country can have dramatic implications for others, and banks are dependent on each other across borders.
"Because of the interlinkages between the European banking systems, if there are issues in one country, these will domino into other countries," SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) 's Marcussen said.
"It is not just about supporting the peripheral countries, it is about offering support to the European banking sector."
The ECB's promise of continued unlimited funding would reduce uncertainties and give banks and governments time to bridge their credibility gap.
Liquidity injections have an important role not only in helping banks, but also in easing government financing woes, as sovereign bonds can be used as collateral against ECB loans, making them more attractive to banks, analysts said.
"The ECB is not just financing the banks that obtain funds more cheaply, it is also financing the governments (through the tenders)," said Filipe Garcia, an economist at the Informacao de Mercados Financeiros in Porto, Portugal.
The central bank would not be doing its job as guardian of the economy were it to ignore problems in the south, he added.
"If the ECB was not present, it would not be assuming its role as a central bank," Garcia said.
(Additional reporting by Axel Bugge in Lisbon and Krista Hughes in Frankfurt; editing by Patrick
Anche questa settimana pessimi dati dagli USA e borse che perdono, se domani aumentassero ancora le richieste di disoccupazione gli scenari per gli USA sarebbero nerissimi.
Quello che non capisco è per quale motivo continuano a stampare se poi quei soldi nn entrano in circolo.